000 AGXX40 KNHC 181814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 214 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TRIO OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER EASTERN GEORGIA...ONE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE THIRD OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS...CONTINUE TO RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF...AND ALSO THE WATERS GULF W OF 94W. 1020 HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED OVER SE ALABAMA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PUSHING INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRECEDING IT. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...THEN ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI AND SAT...MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO SUN. MEANWHILE THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM ITS CURRENT ORIENTATION OF NE TO SW TO AN E TO W ORIENTATION ALONG 28N SAT AND SUN...THEN TO ALONG 30N BY MON. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE SW GULF WHERE THEY WILL BE MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT SEAS OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAINLY 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS SPREADING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS N OF THE REGION AND THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE WAVE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF 30 KT WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WHERE THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TAIL END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TERMINATING NEAR 11N74W. WITH SUCH A LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF THESE WINDS...SEAS ARE LIKELY 13-14 FT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THESE STRONG WINDS WHICH IS INITIALIZED WELL BY THE WAVEWATCH MODEL. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...THEN WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO 30 KT THIS WEEKEND AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ALONG 55W/56W. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THEN TO ACROSS THE REST OF THE E AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT...AND FINALLY THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N68W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE W ALONG 28N/29N. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS N OF 22N UNDER THIS HIGH AND RIDGE. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE S OF 22N WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTER DUE TO BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE E-SE. THESE CONDITIONS AND THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT VARY MUCH DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGING HOLDING NEARLY STEADY. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS BY JUST TO THE S OF THE AREA WITH 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED S OF 22N/23N DURING ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3-5 FT N OF 22N AND 4-7 FT S OF 22N...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS WAS USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ALONG WITH THE WAVEWATCH FOR SEAS...WITH BOTH MODELS INITIALIZING WELL BASED ON LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSING DATA. THESE MODELS WERE USED FOR THE ENTIRE OFFSHORE WATERS AREAS INCLUDING THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY