000 AGXX40 KNHC 140831 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 430 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012 UPDATED POSITIONS OF ATLC SURFACE TROUGH MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS NE OF THE GULF AS THE WRN EXTENT OF THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS W TO THE SE U.S. A MORE DIFFUSE UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 23N91W IS SLOWLY MOVING W...WHILE A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS ERN TEXAS TO NE MEXICO. WHAT WAS RECENTLY A SURFACE TROUGH WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOW ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM JUST S OF THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 24N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS SHOW GENERALLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT W OF 88W...AND E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT E OF 88W. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 0-2 FT E OF 90W...2-3 FT BETWEEN 90W-92W AND 2-4 FT W OF 92W. FOR THIS FORECAST NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AS THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS NE OF THE GULF HOLDS THERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE IT SLIDES S TO NEAR 27N MON THROUGH WED. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO TRACK WWD TOWARDS THE NW GULF WHILE GRADUALLY DAMPENING OUT THROUGH MON NIGHT. MORE PRONOUNCED SE WINDS OF 15 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SW GULF...AND FAR SW PORTION OF THE NW GULF TUE AND WED. THE MULTIGRID NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FOR FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS IT HAS INITIALIZED CLOSE TO REPORTED SEA STATE VALUES. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W...UPDATED THE PRELIMINARY 06 UTC ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE N OF THE REGION. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 28N71W MOVING W WITH ITS CIRCULATION EXTENDING FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 64W-81W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N70W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED S OF 26N BETWEEN 67W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 65W-75W. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0210 UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED A RATHER SUBTLE NE TO SE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE TROUGH WITH WIND VELOCITY OF 10-15 KT. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD VERY CLOSE IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND WILL BE FORECAST TO REACH FROM 30N75W TO 23N78W BY EARLY TONIGHT...FROM NEAR 30N77W TO 26N79W SUN MORNING...THEN TRACK MORE TO THE NW TO ALONG 30N80W TO NEAR E CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY SUN NIGHT AS IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS JUST TO THE NE OF THE FORECAST WATERS TO THE SW OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WHILE IT SLOWS DOWN. HIGH PRES OF 1021 MB BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR 28N64W BY SUN NIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NWD. S OF THE RIDGE...E-SE 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL E OF THE BAHAMAS WITH POCKETS 15-20 KT TROUGH MON AS A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC E OF THE FORECAST WATERS...PASSES TO THE S OF THE AREA FURTHER SUSTAINING THE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN THE E 15-20 KT WINDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THAT THE LATEST GFS MODEL LOOKS REASONABLE...PLAN TO COMBINE IT INTO THE PREVIOUS PUBLISHED GRID SET. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERED THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS YESTERDAY... AND ITS 0600 UTC PRELIMINARY POSITION THIS MORNING HAS IT EXTENDING FROM 20N60W TO 9N56W MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. BROAD LOW PRES COVERS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT AREAS OF CENTRAL MERCIA AND S AMERICA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WELL E OF THE AREA. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AREA OF LOW PRES AND ATLC RIDGING TO THE N HAS INDUCED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE FAR S AND SW SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN PER THE 0208 ASCAT PASS. MAX SEAS THERE ARE UP TO 8 FT. TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE AT LIGHTER SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...AND 15-20 KT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 11N. IN THE CARIBBEAN... SEA HEIGHTS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-4 FT E OF 80W...EXCEPT UP TO 8 FT IN THE SW PORTION...AND 2-3 FT W OF 80W. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC SEAS ARE 6-8 FT N OF 15N DUE TO A N-NE SWELL...AND 5-7 FT S OF 15N. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE FORECAST TO REACH FROM JUST SE OF PUERTO RICO TO NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO BY EARLY TONIGHT... FROM SW HAITI TO FAR NE COLOMBIA BY EARLY SUN EVENING...FROM NEAR 18N78W TO NW COLOMBIA BY EARLY MON EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA WILL BE FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR ERN TROPICAL N ATLC ON SUN...THEN FROM 18N57W TO 10N55W EARLY SUN EVENING ...AND INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN MON TO NEAR THE E PART OF HISPANIOLA TO 10N65W BY EARLY MON EVENING. THIS WAVE SIMILARLY TO THE FIRST ONE WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. THE WAVES MAY NOT BE DISCERNIBLE AT THE SURFACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THEIR FAST MOTION BECOMES EQUATED TO THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT WHICH MAY REDUCE THE WAVE SURFACE SIGNAL ON FUTURE PRES ANALYSES. NEVERTHELESS...THE PASSAGE OF THESE WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO MAX OUT TO 25 KT IN THE SW PORTION OF THE SEA CLOSE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW OF THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCES BUILD SEAS TO THE RANGE OF 10-12 FT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH WED WITH THE MULTIGRID WWW III AND THE N ATLC HURRICANE MODEL INDICATING UP TO 13 FT SEAS BY WED. WILL FORECAST SEAS UP TO 11 FT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE SEA SUN THROUGH TUE AND UP TO 12 FT WED. NE-E TRADES OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT TUE AND WED. SEAS TO 8 FT IN A NE SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE A LITTLE TUE AND WED. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE