000 AGXX40 KNHC 120617 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR N GULF IS SHIFTING SE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIP INTO THE NW WATERS LATER TODAY AND QUICKLY STALL FROM ROUGHLY THE MS DELTA TO 26N94W. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD LATE TONIGHT PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT NW OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE FRI. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF NOW DEPICTS THE WEAK FRONT IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...IT IS STILL WEAKER AND THE TIMING SLOWER THAN THE PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 24N87W AND AN UPPER RIDGE IS CRESTING OVER THE FL STRAITS THIS MORNING. THESE UPPER FEATURE COMBINE TO DISTORT THE EXACT POSITION OF A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED TO THE S OF 26N AND CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EXTREME W BAHAMAS. EXPECT THE WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FL STRAITS TODAY...REACH ALONG 84W LATE FRI...ALONG 88W LATE SAT...AND ALONG 91W LATE SUN...THEN WEAKEN LOSING IDENTITY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE SW GULF ON MON. BLENDED ONLY LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W ALONG 31N WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN N OF AREA THROUGH EARLY SAT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL PASS W THROUGH THE WATERS N OF 25N FRI AND SAT ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT NE-ESE WIND SHIFT AT 15-20 KT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE WATERS N OF 28N JUST TO THE SW OF BERMUDA LATE SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFT E STALLING FROM 31N53W TO 27N57W EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS S INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N68W. FURTHER S...ELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 15 KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA S OF 24N W OF 65W TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AGAIN LATE FRI...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TILL A TROPICAL WAVE...MENTIONED NEXT...PASSES W THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO 20-25 KT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED S OF 20N ALONG 43W WILL REACH ALONG 55W FRI NIGHT...ALONG 62W SAT NIGHT...66N SUN NIGHT...AND 72W MON NIGHT. BLENDED LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED TO THE N OF 17N ALONG 78W IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN PASSAGE FRI NIGHT AND MOVE W OF THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT. CURRENTLY...ELY TRADES ARE AT 25-30 KT OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND AT 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 17N W OF 67W. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE NEXT SURGE OF NE WINDS AT 20 KT WILL REACH ALONG 55W LATE FRI...AND SPREAD RAPIDLY W ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT...AND SURGE INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE SUN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED N OF 10N AND SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W FRI NIGHT AND MOVE INTO E CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT...REACH NEAR 66W SUN NIGHT...AND ROUGHLY NEAR 72W MON NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO ONLY INCREASE TO 25 KT S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WAVE PASSES. BLENDED LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON