000 AGXX40 KNHC 110529 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT SE WED NIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THU. THE LATEST GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF BARELY MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH STALLS THE FRONT FROM THE MS DELTA TO SE TX THU NIGHT THEN PUSHES THE BOUNDARY NW OF THE AREA LATE FRI WITH THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHING E TO W BUT N OF THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND. FURTHER S...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED TO THE S OF 26N CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND MOVE INTO THE FL STRAITS THU...REACH ALONG 83W THU NIGHT... ALONG 85W FRI...ALONG 88W LATE SAT...WITH REMNANTS OF THE WAVE MOVING W THROUGH THE SW GULF OF SUN. BLENDED LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W FROM 34N55W TO NE FL WILL LIFT N TO ALONG 30N LATE TODAY...AND SHIFT N OF AREA THU AND REMAINING N OF AREA FRI-SUN. SW WINDS N OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT...WHILE ELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA S OF 24N W OF 65W THROUGH SUN. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 74W WILL PASS W OF THE AREA FRI. THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 KT NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED S OF 23N ALONG 36W WILL REACH ALONG 55W FRI NIGHT...AND REACH ALONG 62W LATE SAT AND ALONG 69N LATE SUN. BLENDED LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED TO THE N OF 18N NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ATTM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN PASSAGE LATE FRI. ELY TRADES ARE AT 25-30 KT OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND AT 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 17N ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE TRADES TO RELAX ACROSS THE AREA E OF 70W EARLY THU...BUT CONTINUE TO 30 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION...EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THU NIGHT. THE NEXT SURGE OF NE WINDS AT 20 KT WILL REACH ALONG 55W LATE FRI AND SPREAD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE SUN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED N OF 12N AND SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W FRI NIGHT AND INTO E CARIBBEAN LATE SAT INTO SUN. BLENDED LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON