000 AGXX40 KNHC 091857 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT MON JUL 09 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE AREA IS A RIDGE ALONG 27N WITH A 1018 MB HIGH CENTER AT 27N87W...WHILE THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR SW GULF ALONG 96W S OF 21N MOVING W AT 12 KT. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TO SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE GULF ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER NW CUBA. AT THE SAME TIME...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR ERN GULF S OF 27N AND NEAR 82W/83W. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT SHOW S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT N OF THE RIDGE W OF 87W EXCEPT SW 10-15 KT W OF 92W...AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 KT E OF 87W N OF THE RIDGE. S OF THE RIDGE E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE W OF 87W...AND NE-E 5-10 KT ARE E OF 87W. INTERMITTENT E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT WITH JUST A SMALL POCKET OF 3-4 FT SEAS IN THE FAR WRN GULF E OF THE SRN TEXAS COAST...AND IN THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA. THE 1 FT SEAS ARE N OF 26N AND E OF 87W. THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT W ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FAR SE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LATEST NWS RADAR IMAGERY FROM MIAMI AND KEY WEST SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 26N E OF 84W ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN NEALY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE FRI THEN SHIFT SOME TO THE N AS A FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE SE U.S. TE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W WILL MOVE INLAND MEXICO EARLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FAR SE GULF THU AND FRI...AND WEAKEN OVER THE S-CENTRAL GULF WATERS ON FRI. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT WITH THIS WAVE...HOWEVER PRECIP/MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RESULTANT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE TSTMS WITH THE WAVE. EXPECT SLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE W-CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. AS FOR SEAS WILL RELY ON THE NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE AS IT HAS AN INITIAL GOOD HANDLE WITH SEAS THROUGHOUT. ONLY POSSIBLE CHANGES WITH FORECAST SEAS MAY BE ATTRIBUTE ONLY TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS KICKING UP TO HIGHER RANGES THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF THU. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN MAINLY ON LATEST GFS GUIDANCE AS IT LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W WSW TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...A WEAK SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FAR SW PORTION ALONG THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NW CUBA...AND A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 25N63W TO PUERTO RICO. LATEST BUOY ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOW GENERALLY E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT S OF THE RIDGE TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL 15-20 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. W OF THE BAHAMAS AND S OF THE RIDGE WINDS ARE NE-E AT 10-15 KT. N OF THE RIDGE WINDS ARE S-SW 10-15 KT. OBSERVED SEA STATE SHOWS SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT N OF THE RIDGE W OF ABOUT 70W...AND 3-4 FT IN MIXED N AND SE SWELL E OF 70W. THE FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BASICALLY HAVE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SEAS IN THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE ZONE...AND PERHAPS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIMING OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE WED INTO THU DEPENDING ON HOW IT INTERACTS WITH SURROUNDING INFLUENTIAL SYNOPTIC FEATURES. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL WEIGH FORECAST TO GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE RIDGE LIFTING N TO NEAR 30N BY WED...TO NEAR 31N THU AND FRI AND TO N OF 31N BY SAT. WITH THE WAVE ADVANCING WWD AT THE SAME TIME... THE OCCASIONAL E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT IN THE FAR SRN PORTION BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA EXPAND SOME TO THE E ...BUT SEAS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH ALONG 71W/72W S OF 26N TO INCLUDE THE SE BAHAMAS TUE MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND TO W OF THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO VICINITY KEYS LATE WED INTO THU PER GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT. THE WAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THU NIGHT AS IT BECOMES LESS DISCERNIBLE. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 6 FT IN AN E SWELL OVER THE FAR ERN WATERS FRI AND SAT PER THE LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE...AND POSSIBLY TO 7 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION PER THE SAME GUIDANCE AND ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE UKMET. THE UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION FOR FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A RATHER ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 16N ALONG 65W MOVING WNW AT 18 KT. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND WILL BE IN THIS ONE...THE WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...ACROSS HISPANIOLA TUE AND TUE...AND THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. A BROAD SWATH OF 20-25 KT NE-E WINDS IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE FAR SRN SECTION NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS INDICATED BY AN OSCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT...AND IN FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EVIDENT EXCEPT W OF ABOUT 82W WHERE NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE SEEN. THE TRADES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE AGAIN FRI AND SAT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCES SUGGEST LARGE SEAS OF 10-12 FT TO BE CONFINED IN THE SW PART OF THE SEA THROUGH AT LEAST THU BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE 25-30 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DIMINISH. I BLENDED THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FOLLOWING GFS GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. 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