000 AGXX40 KNHC 070546 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EDT FRI JUL 07 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN E TO W RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A SURFACE HIGH 1014 MB TO 1018 MB DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NE WATERS AS A N-S TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND N FL. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 23N87W AND MOVING SW WITH TIME. DIFFLUENCE OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER NW CUBA WITH THE CONVECTIVE REMNANTS NOW MOVING N INTO THE FL STRAITS. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION AS WELL. EXPECT THIS WAVE TO CONTINUE W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM SUN MORNING THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH A BRIEF SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY LEFT IN ITS WAKE ON MON NIGHT AND TUE...PER THE GFS SOLUTION. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE AT 5-10 KT AROUND THE RIDGE WITH GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE E WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SE GULF THIS MORNING...AND SHIFT W TO THE S CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT AGAIN. BLENDED LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... INTENSE CONVECTION FLARED EARLIER FROM CENTRAL CUBA NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE CONVECTION HAS PEAKED...BUT LIGHTNING DATA IS STILL DETECTING TSTMS WHICH ARE GRADUALLY MOVING WNW TOWARDS THE FL STRAITS. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO THE FL COAST AT 28N WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ALONG ROUGHLY THIS POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SW WINDS N OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT...WHILE ELY WINDS S OF 24N WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT MOSTLY 20 KT ACROSS OFFSHORE ZONE AMZ123. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W TO ALONG 65W ON MON...AND CONTINUE W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TUE AND WED. THIS WAVE APPEARS MUCH DRIER THAN THE WAVE THAT IS PASSING W OF THE AREA ATTM. THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W-84W WILL MOVE W OF AREA BY TONIGHT. ELY TRADES ARE AT MOSTLY 25-30 KT ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 20-25 KT OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ELSEWHERE E OF 83W...AND E 15-20 KT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME SUN THROUGH MON...THEN THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN TUE AND WED. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A TAD MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER GUIDANCE SO BLENDED WITH ECMWF AND PREVIOUS GRIDS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON