000
AGXX40 KNHC 061759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WELL ANCHORED HIGH PRES CENTER 1018 MB AT 27N88W HAS E-W RIDGE 
SPAN ACROSS N GULF WATERS.  CREST OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING 
THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS ENTER STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY SUN WITH 
SLIGHT INCREASE IN NE WINDS.  AIR MASS E OF 90W HAS MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL POOL OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ONCE 
TROPICAL WAVE REACHES W OF FLORIDA PENINSULA.  OTHERWISE...MODEL 
GUIDANCE MAINTAIN STEADY FLOW OF LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE 
BREEZE THROUGHOUT ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH TUE.  BLENDED GFS AND 
ECMWF SOLUTION WITH MINOR CHANGES IN TROPICAL WAVE TIMING 
LEANING TOWARDS GFS. 

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N55W TO CENTRAL FL AS CREST OF TROPICAL  
WAVE MOVING W THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCREASE CONVECTION ALONG 
ITS AXIS.  MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE AND SEAS BELOW 8 FT 
WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE AXIS S OF 23N.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
INDUCED BY UPPER CYCLONE OVER SE GULF OF MEXICO AND ANTICYCLONE 
JUST N OF PUERTO RICO MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG WAVE AXIS 
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ATLC RIDGE SHIFT NE LATE SUN WITH 
LIGHT S TO SE WINDS OVER BASIN AWAY FROM TROPICAL WAVE 
INFLUENCE.  A MENTIONED ABOVE...FORECAST IS A BLEND OF GFS AND 
ECMWF WITH MINOR CHANGES IN TROPICAL WAVE TIMING.       

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
BOTTOM PART OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVE INTO W CARIBBEAN FROM E TIP OF 
CUBA TO 12N82W WITH MODERATE NE BREEZE WITHIN 120 NM W OF AXIS.  
ELSEWHERE FRESH TRADES EXTEND E OF WAVE TO CENTRAL AMERICA.  W 
OF WAVE AXIS...CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE AND 1008 MB LOW PRES OVER 
COLOMBIA BUILD PRES GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN STRONG E BREEZE AND UP 
TO 12 FT SEAS S OF 15N FROM 68W TO 80W. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREEMENT 
GIVE LITTLE HOPE OF MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS PATTERN THROUGH ENTIRE 
FORECAST PERIOD. 

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES