000 AGXX40 KNHC 060608 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE N-CENTRAL WATERS WILL SHIFT E AND MERGE INTO A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO E ALONG 29N. A WEAK TROUGH WILL FORM INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH THE RIDGE RETRACTING SLIGHTLY E...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN BAHAMAS WILL MOVE W THROUGH INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE W TO ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS TUE. THE WAVE BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT AT 10-15 KT. GUIDANCE SEEMS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO BLENDED LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N55W TO SE FL WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS ATTM. THE WAVE IS MOVING UNDER THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE INDUCED BETWEEN AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 22N65W. CONVECTION IS FLARING ALONG THE WAVE IN THE SE BAHAMAS AND OVER THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 15N. THE NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IS AT 15-20 KT THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD AND THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON SUN. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE N ON MON WITH SLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BRIEFLY MON AND MON NIGHT PER GFS AND UKMET...BUT ONLY 15 KT PER ECMWF. BLENDED GFS AND ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WITH NE WINDS AT 15-20 KT W OF THE WAVE AXIS. E TRADES AT 20-25 KT EXTEND FROM E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO THE WINDWARDS...WHILE NE-E 15-20 KT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. THE BELT OF ENHANCED WINDS CURRENTLY E OF THE WAVE WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND WITH THE ELY WINDS DIMINISHING TO E-SE 10-15 KT OVER THE WATERS E OF 68W. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL EXPERIENCE NE-E 20-25 KT...THE NW CARIBBEAN NE 10-15 KT...AND THE REMAINDER OF AREA E OF 68W WILL BE ELY AT 15-20 KT. USED BLEND OF LATEST GFS/ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON