000 AGXX40 KNHC 051741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTER 1018 MB WITH RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 29N MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE BREEZE AND VERY SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN. MOISTURE AREAS REMAINS AT THE EDGE OF BASIN WITH LARGE POOL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT JUST S OF 26N E OF 87W. POOL TAKES ADDED IMPORTANCE WITH APPROACH OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS BAHAMAS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER POOL OF MOISTURE S OF 21N IN BAY OF CAMPECHE DOES NOT PRESENT A PROBLEM AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LACK OF UPLIFTING MECHANISM. DRY STABLE CONDITIONS RULE ELSEWHERE. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE IN MAINTAINING CONDITIONS UNCHANGED TILL TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS GULF LATE MON OR TUE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... CENTRAL ATLC STATIONARY HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 29N EXTENDS W ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN TO FLORIDA. PREVAILING LIGHT TO MODERATE SE TO S BREEZE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF BASIN N OF 22N THROUGH MON. NORTHERN TIP OF TROPICAL WAVE EMBEDDED IN ELY FLOW ALONG 70W TIGHTENS PRES GRADIENT S OF 22N WITH FRESH NE TRADES AND 6-7 FT SEAS WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE S OF 24N BRING HEAVY RAINS OVER PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH OVERALL SCENARIO...DIFFER MOSTLY ON TROPICAL WAVE POSITION AFTER SUN. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD GFS SOLUTION. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG E-NE BREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS 8-11 FT EXPECTED THROUGH MON AS WEAK LOW PRES CENTER 1008 MB DEVELOPS OVER SW CARIBBEAN WATERS. NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUE MAINLY S OF 13N W OF 77W BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND FRI. TROPICAL WAVE...PRESENTLY ALONG 70W...BRINGS REINFORCING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN ADDITION TO ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF WAVE AXIS. CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE HAS LONG FETCH OF NE TO E TRADES PERSISTING SEVERAL MORE DAYS...MAINTAINING 7-8 FT SWELLS ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES