000 AGXX40 KNHC 040650 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 28N EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST THE REGION...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON GFS AND THE WW3 WAVE MODEL. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A STATIONARY HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 28N EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST THE REGION...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON GFS AND THE WW3 WAVE MODEL. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S OF 25N WITH SEAS TO 6-7 FT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP S OF 23N AS THE WAVE MOVES S OF THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS 8-11 FT BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A STATIONARY HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA ALONG 28N AND PERSISTENT LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTING THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 21N ALONG 82W WILL MOVE W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE S OF 19N ALONG 59W WILL TRAVERSE THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND MOVE W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH SAT. NEITHER OF THESE WAVES IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING WAVE PASSAGE ALONG WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON GFS AND WW3 WAVE MODEL. THE ATLC RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED. A LONG FETCH OF NE TO E TRADES WILL PERSIST SEVERAL MORE DAYS... MAINTAINING SEAS 6-7 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL