000 AGXX40 KNHC 021855 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT MON JUL 02 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 27N86W...AND HAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NW DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS WEAKLY CONNECTED TO NWD SHIFTING ATLC RIDGE. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT N OF 27N E OF 87W WHERE SW-W WINDS OF 10 KT ARE NOTED. THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT W OF 94W EXCEPT 5-7 FT FROM 25N TO 28N...AND 1-2 FT E OF 94W EXCEPT 2-3 FT S OF 24N E OF 89W. THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE KEEPING HOLD ON WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH DAY 5 (SAT) AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SE U.S. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED EVENING AND ENHANCE THE EVENING CONVECTION THERE WHICH MAY SPREAD W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVERNIGHT WED. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THE GFS AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND REGIME WITH RESPECT TO THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF RUN FROM 00 UTC LAST NIGHT ALSO APPEARS TO CLOSELY MATCH THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD. THE NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE PERIOD...MAY JUST TWEAK SEAS UP 1 FT IN THE FAR WRN GULF NEAR THE TEXAS COAST FOR TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY FOR MOST OF TUE DUE TO THE CONTINUING MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THAT EXISTS THERE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... LIKE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS PART OF THE ATLC IS THE WELL DEFINED JULY ATLC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC WSW TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION OF FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED TSTMS CONFINED FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING UNDER A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM A SMALL UPPER LOW AT 27N73W SW TO ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND TO THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO 28N WED THROUGH FRI...AND TO 29N BY SAT. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH ELY TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE SE BAHAMAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA BUILD TO 6-7 FT WED THROUGH FRI WITH POSSIBLE SMALL AND SHORT-LIVED POCKETS OF 8 FT NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT ON SAT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS...AND LOWER IN THE 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND ALSO N OF 27N W OF 77W. DO NOT SEE ANY NEED TO DEVIATE FROM THE NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE FAR NRN FRINGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE S OF THE CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA...COULD POSSIBLY HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT TO INCLUDE THE SURROUNDING ATLC WATERS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL RACE ACROSS THE ATLC AT 20-25 KT AND REACH PUERTO RICO WED EVENING...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH DAY 5 POSSIBLY HELPING TO FIRE UP CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS INCLUDING JAMAICA WITHIN ABOUT 36 HRS. SINCE THIS IS A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE WITH A BROAD AMPLITUDE...SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AGAIN BE SEEN ALONG AND OVER THE SURROUNDING ATLC WATERS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE INCREASE TO ELY WINDS IN THE FAR SRN ATLC WATERS. WILL WATCH WAVE AS TO HOW IT CHANGES OR NOT IN AMPLITUDE AS IT QUICKLY TRACKS WWD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH ELY TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE ON TAP TO BECOME ENHANCED THROUGH WED AS THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 72W S OF 18N MOVING W ABOUT 18 KT MOVES W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AS THE ATLC RIDGE GRADUALLY LIFTS NWD. LATEST TPW ANIMATION ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS DIMINISHING WITH TIME. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY W AND REACH 75W TONIGHT ...THEN 81W/82W BY TUE EVENING AND INTO THE YUCATAN BY WED EVENING. A BROAD FIELD OF 20-25 KT WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIB TONIGHT THROUGH WED AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...EXTENDING N TO JUST ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. SEAS WITHIN THIS WIND AREA ARE STILL FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT...WITH AS HIGH AS 12 FT S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-75W. THE NOCTURNAL WIND MAX OFF OF COLOMBIA SHOULD REACH 25-30 KT. AS THE WAVE REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN WED...THE LONG AND EXTENDED FETCH OF FRESH TRADES WILL BUILD SEAS 10-12 FT BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. FOR SEAS WILL USE THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH ECMWF AND UKMET BEING THE ONES THAT ARE CONSISTENTLY LOWER WITH THE SEAS AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WELL E OF THE FORECAST ZONES IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR ERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE FAR WRN PART OF THE ZONE BY LATE TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND FAR ERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING EARLY WED AND INTO THU. BOTH THE 12 UTC GFS FROM THIS MORNING AND ECMWF FROM 00 UTC LAST NIGHT AGREED THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RATHER EVIDENT NE TO SE WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE SW ATLC WILL SHIFT N THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A SWD SURGE OF FAR ERN ATLC HIGH PRES HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ELY TRADES BEHIND THE WAVE. EXPECT NE-E WINDS OF MOSTLY 20 KT WITH SEAS TO MOSTLY 8 FT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 9 FT BEHIND THIS WAVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 FT. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF FOLLOWING THE WAVEWATCH ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THIS WAVE WITH A BROAD FIELD OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN ENE SWELL. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE