000 AGXX40 KNHC 011904 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 27N84W AND WEAKLY CONNECTED TO ATLC RIDGE. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SE-S WINDS W OF 88W...LIGHT W-NW WINDS N AND NE OF THE HIGH AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS S OF THE HIGH IN THE SE FAR S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY N TO ALONG 27N ON MON AND 28N ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ELY TRADES TO BUILD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE SE GULF. W OF 88W...SE WIND FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AS DRY AIR MAINLY AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO PUSH NW AND INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER FAR SE TEXAS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND THAT HELPED TO INITIATE WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE W AND NW GULF HAS SHIFTED SW INTO NE MEXICO. SLIGHT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENT ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NE TEXAS COAST WITH SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY NOW CONFINED FROM 23N TO 28N W OF 95W. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. SE-S FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE W HALF OF THE GULF INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND WINDS BACK OFF TO AROUND 15 KT LATE MON THROUGH THU. LATEST BUOYS THROUGHOUT SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FT IN THE ERN PART OF THE GULF...2-3 FT IN THE CENTRAL...AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT OVER MUCH OF THE WRN PORTION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 6-7 FT FROM 22N-26N W OF 94W. BUOY 42055 IN THE SW GULF AT 22N94W IS PRESENTLY REPORTING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. SEAS WERE INCREASED 1-2 FT FOR MOST WRN GULF ZONE IN THE MORNING PACKAGE UPDATE CLOSER TO THE NWW3 AND UKMET MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE WWIII ENSEMBLE MEANS USED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SEAS IN THE WRN GULF. SO WILL RELY ON THESE GUIDANCES FOR THIS PACKAGE ...AND USE STANDARD NWW3 FOR REMAINDER OF GULF. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 27N65W SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING NW THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS. RECENT AND LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW S-SW WINDS OF 10 KT N OF THE RIDGE...E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT S OF THE RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND E-SE WINDS OF 10 KT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. REPORTED SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT MOST ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT 3-5 FT S OF 22N E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1406 UTC THIS MORNING NICELY PICKED UP ON THE NE TO SE WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAHAMA TROUGH...AND VERIFIED THE SW 10 KT WINDS IN THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. AS FOR THE FORECAST...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N TO NEAR 27N ON MON...AND FURTHER N TO NEAR 28N TUE THROUGH FRI. THE TROUGH IN THE SE BAHAMAS WILL REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON AND MON NIGHT AS IT DISSIPATES. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ELEVATE WINDS OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS TO 15-20 KT BEGINNING TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT THERE BY LATE MON AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY PEAKING TO 7 FT NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA APPROACHING 66W S OF 18N IS MOVING AROUND 18 KT. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING PRETTY MUCH IN TANDEM IS PASSING N OF PUERTO RICO. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1406 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT THIS FEATURE MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE E 15-20 KT FORECAST TO SPREAD FURTHER WWD ACROSS THE FAR SRN WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXP CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...BUT WILL BECOME ENHANCED THROUGH WED AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BASIN AND THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS NWD WHILE BUILDING WWD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE E GULF. THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING 66W S OF 18N IS ATTENDANT BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS SQUALLY WEATHER WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE NE CARIB THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE FAR NRN EXTENT OF THIS WEATHER SHOULD AFFECTING MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH MON NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE MOST CONCENTRATED OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PASS TO THE S. A SECOND PERTURBATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WIDESPREAD SQUALLS AND TSTMS ARE BEING OBSERVED TO THE E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE S OF 15N INCLUDING JUST ABOUT ALL THESE ISLANDS. THE WAVE WILL INTENSIFY THE ALREADY PRESENT PRES GRADIENT PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA THROUGH WED RESULTING IN E WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE WITH NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT TO BE IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE SEA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 71W BY MON MORNING...NEAR 75W MON NIGHT BEFORE IT BECOMES ILL-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE TILL IT ONCE AGAIN MOST LIKELY RE-EMERGES AT THE SURFACE IN THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER DURING THE WEEK. GIVEN THE PRESENT AND FORECAST SYNOPTIC SETUP WITH RESPECT TO THE WAVE AND SUBSEQUENT LONG ELY FETCH IN ITS WAKE...THE FORECAST SEAS OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET SEEM TOO LOW FOR THE SRN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM DAYS 3 TO 5 FT. SO WILL FOLLOW THE CONVENTIONAL NWW3 AND NAH GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE SEAS FOR THOSE. THE NWW3 AND NAH GUIDANCES FALL MORE IN LINE WITH THE WW3 ENSEMBLE MEAN IN BUILDING THE SEAS TO 12 FT FOR THAT PART OF THE CARIBBEAN. FOR SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NWW3 GUIDANCE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WELL E OF THE FORECAST ZONES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR ERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TUE MORNING...AND MOVE THROUGH THAT ZONE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BOTH THE 12 UTC GFS FROM THIS MORNING AND ECMWF FROM 00 UTC LAST NIGHT AGREED THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RATHER EVIDENT NE TO SE WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE SW ATLC WILL SHIFT N THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A SWD SURGE OF FAR ERN ATLC HIGH PRES HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ELY TRADES BEHIND THE WAVE. EXPECT NE-E WINDS OF MOSTLY 20 KT WITH SEAS TO MOSTLY 8 FT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 9 FT BEHIND THIS WAVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 FT. WILL WATCH MODEL NEAR FUTURE GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR WINDS TO SEE IF FORECAST WINDS NEED TO BE ELEVATED TO 25 KT FOR THU AND FRI FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE