000 AGXX40 KNHC 010810 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 410 AM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK 1017 MB HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 26N84.5W AND WEAKLY CONNECTED TO ATLC RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY N TO ALONG 27N ON MON AND 28N ON TUE...AND ALLOWING ELY TRADES TO BUILD THROUGH THE STRAITS AND INTO SE PORTIONS OF THE GULF. W OF 88W...SELY FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED...AND DRY AIR IS FINALLY PUSHING NW AND INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE GULF. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR BROAD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE W AND NW GULF THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NW AND INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER WITH IT IN THE PROCESS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE THUS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT IN THE FAR W CENTRAL AND NW GULF...MAINLY W OF 94W. SE-S FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE W HALF OF THE BASIN TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND WINDS BACK OFF TO AROUND 15 KT LATE MON THROUGH WED. SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT AND THE TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN WILL YIELD WINDS 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MON. HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WWIII ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR SEAS ACROSS THE W GULF AS THEY ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT OFF THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS W OF 95W THROUGH MON. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... NOW THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF DEBBY HAS MOVED FURTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION...HIGH PRES RIDGING HAS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED THROUGHOUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM NE ATLC SW TO S FLORIDA. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS NE TO 30N68W AND IS GRADUALLY WASHING OUT. TUTT AXIS EXTENDING FROM TUTT LOW OVER CENTRAL ATLC SW ACROSS THE NE CARIB HAS BEEN ACTING TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES IN WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE AN UPPER CONVERGENCE ZONE. A WEAK TROUGH S OF 23N ALONG ABOUT 70W WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND TO THE STRAITS THROUGH TUE...WITH 15-20 KT TRADES BUILDING ALONG S PORTIONS BEHIND IT...WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE CARIB TODAY AND THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH TUE...WITH SQUALLS POSSIBLE S OF 21N AS IT MOVES W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ON TUE BEHIND BOTH THE SMALL TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT THROUGH THIS SOUTHERN CORRIDOR. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...BUT WILL BECOME ENHANCED THROUGH WED AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BASIN AND THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE E GULF. TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE E CARIB ALONG 62/63W KICKING OFF SCATTERED SQUALLS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS SQUALLY WEATHER WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE NE CARIB TODAY AND AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A SECOND PERTURBATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SE CARIB...WITH A 25-30 KT MID LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TOP OF IT INTERACTING WITH TRAILING SAL TO PRODUCE SQUALLS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN WINDWARDS AND LEEWARDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED WITH WINDS TO 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE NOCTURNAL MAX. WWIII SEEMED A BIT LOW BASED ON THIS WIND FIELD AND AGAIN HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHER WW ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUILDING SEAS 9-11 FT ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SW CARIB BY TUE...WITH SEAS TO NEAR 12 FT LIKELY OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS BEHIND THIS TROPICAL WAVE HAVE PRODUCED A REASONABLE FETCH OF ELY WINDS AT 20 KT AND BUOYS EAST OF THE ISLANDS AT 7-8 FT...AGAIN HIGHER THAN WWII. THESE FRESH TRADES AND SEAS 7-8 FT ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS. A COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS EXITED AFRICA IN THE PAST 36 HOURS WILL RACE ACROSS THE ATLC AND REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TUE...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER BROAD WIND SURGE LIKELY 20-25 KT AND SEAS 7-9 FT. GRIDS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE TWEAKED UP A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING