000 AGXX40 KNHC 301903 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1018 MB IS STATIONARY OVER THE FAR SE GULF AT 26N83W WITH A WEAK RIDGE NW TO NEAR 28N95W. LATEST BUOY AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT SE-S WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT SW-W 5 KT WINDS IN THE EAST GULF FROM 24N- 26N BETWEEN 83W-87W AND W-NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT N OF 26N E OF 87W. SEAS ARE IN THE LOW RANGE OF 1-3 FT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW PORTION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FAR SE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO IS MOVING SLOWLY SW. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN GULF AND TEXAS COASTAL WATERS W OF 95W. DIFFLUENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS E OF IT AND S OF ABOUT 26N. A SURFACE TO LLVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT AND CURRENT WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE NW GULF IS FORECAST TO SHIFT N AND NW INTO TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS SHOULD AGAIN RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY ATTENDANT BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BEFORE INTO SUN EVENING BEFORE MOVING INLAND. RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 26N THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SE U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND AND SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN AND CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS THROUGH DAY 5 (THU). SLIGHT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WRN GULF BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT THERE ATTRIBUTED TO INFLOW INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NW GULF WILL LEADS TO SE 15-20 KT WINDS THERE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. PER GFS/UKMET/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCES THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON MON WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 2-4 FT TUE THROUGH THU. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... NOW THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF DEBBY HAS MOVED FURTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION...HIGH PRES RIDGING HAS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED THROUGHOUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEAR 27N65W WSW TO TO S FLORIDA. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W SW TO 25N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60-90 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A WEAK TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 25N62W SW TO NEAR 20N70W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED LIGHT SW WINDS N OF THE RIDGE...AND VERY LIGHT E-SE WINDS S AND E OF THE TROUGH. BUOYS THROUGHOUT ARE CONFIRMING THESE CONDITIONS. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EVIDENT OVER THE FAR WRN PART OF THE AREA SW OF THE RIDGE TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT WITH A MIXED NE AND NW SWELL BEING REPORTED IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT N THROUGH EARLY NEAT WEEK TO EXTEND ROUGHLY ALONG 27N. THE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL REACH THE SE BAHAMAS EARLY ON SUN...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUN EVENING AS IT DISSIPATES. E-SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE SRN WATERS SUN AFTERNOON AND INTO THU OF NEXT WEEK AS THE PRES GRADIENT THERE TIGHTENS AND LOWER PRES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED MOSTLY BY THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND LIKEWISE SIMILARLY TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WILL USE THE BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WITH SOME WEIGHT GIVEN TOWARDS PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR THIS PACKAGE. A TROPICAL WAVE SE OF THE AREA MOVING W 15-20 KT IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIB SUN AND MON AND SPREAD SQUALLS AND A FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC SUN AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS REACH TO NEAR 70W BY MON AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH LOCAL NOCTURNAL PEAKS TO NEAR 30 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WHERE SEAS WILL GENERALLY PEAK AT 8-9 FT WITH ISOLATED AREAS TO 10 FT PER CONSENSUS OF THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCES. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS TEND TO BUILD THE SEAS UP TO 12 FT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND CLOSE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THU. THE ECMWF IS NOT THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL AWAIT FOR THE LATEST RUN TO SEE IF IT FOLLOW CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER WAVEWATCH MODELS BEFORE DECIDING IF TO MAX OUT SEAS TO 12 FT A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 57W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 16 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN ELONGATED TUTT TYPE FEATURE TO ITS W ACROSS NE AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TUTT FORECAST TO SHIFT W AND BREAK AS WAVE APPROACHES 61W SUN MORNING AND TO NEAR 64W/65W SUN EVENING. THE LLVL CLOUD SWIRL EARLY NOTED TRAILING THE MAIN WAVE AXIS HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. THE WAVE ALSO APPEARS TO BE LESS DISCERNIBLE AT THE SURFACE WITH TIME AS NEARBY BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PARTIAL ASCAT DATA HAVE INDICATED AND ARE SHOWING NE WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THE WAVE WILL MOST LIKELY BE DEPICTED AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN...THEN BE MORE ALOFT THEREAFTER AS IT PRESSES INTO THE PREDOMINATE MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE NEXT 72 HRS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE