000 AGXX40 KNHC 300803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 403 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE SE GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OFFSHORE OF SW FLORIDA NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE E HALF OF THE BASIN THROUGH MON EVENING WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT...WITH ACTIVE SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG COASTAL ZONES. SE-S RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL W OF 90W THROUGH MON...STARTING AT AROUND 15 KT THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ENHANCED SEABREEZES... INFLOW TO THE ACTIVE CONVECTION...AND THE TYPICAL YUCATAN LATE AFTERNOON TROUGH AND ITS WWD MIGRATION DURING THE EVENING WILL ALSO YIELD 20 KT WINDS. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON. UPPER LOW OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE GULF AND TEXAS COASTAL WATERS W OF 95W...WHILE DIFFLUENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW E OF 95W AND S OF 25W PERSISTS. LLVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT MAJOR CONVECTIVE OUTBREAKS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT N AND NW INTO TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS EXPECTED TO YIELD ONE MORE DAY OF DEEP CONVECTION... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING ASHORE. MOST ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT NW AND INLAND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE REMNANT LOW OF DEBBY WAS CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS OVER 5 FT HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA...FROM A HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NE ATLC SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS...AND INTERRUPTED BY WEAK TROUGHING ALONG 63/64W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10-15 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED TROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ELY TRADES 15-20 KT DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON S OF 23N AND THROUGH THE SRN BAHAMAS. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED IN THE WIND AND WAVE FIELDS. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES TODAY WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE E CARIB SUN AND MON AND SPREAD SQUALLS AND A FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC SUN AFTERNOON AND REACH TO NEAR 70W BY MON AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH LOCAL NOCTURNAL PEAKS TO NEAR 30 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WHERE SEAS WILL GENERALLY PEAK AT 8-9 FT WITH ISOLATED AREAS TO 10 FT POSSIBLE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56/57W THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE STRETCHED BY INTERACTION WITH TUTT EXTENDING ACROSS NE CARIB THEN W ACROSS NRN CARIB. THIS TUTT FORECAST TO SHIFT W AND BREAK AS WAVE APPROACHES 65W SUN AFTERNOON...AND WILL NOT SHEAR WAVE APART. A LLVL CLOUD SWIRL TRAILING THE MAIN WAVE AXIS IS NOW ALONG 50W...AND IS REFLECTED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO 700 HPA. MODELS DEPICT TWO PERTURBATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TODAY AND THEN THE CARIB TONIGHT THROUGH MON. A FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH TUTT WILL YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS...AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...SECOND IMPULSE ACCOMPANIED BY SAL AND 25-30 KT H700 JET WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY SQUALLY WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE E AND NE CARIB SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING