000 AGXX40 KNHC 281858 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE NE GULF THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES FROM YUCATAN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...THEN DISSIPATE ON FRI. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SE RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND INTO MON THEN ABATE SOMEWHAT TUE. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE FCST THOUGH THERE WERE ESSENTIALLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFE GRIDS REFLECT THIS BLEND BEYOND THE THIRD PERIOD. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE REMNANT LOW OF DEBBY WAS CENTERED NEAR 32N70W AS OF 1800 UTC AND APPEARED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. A 1506 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS CAPTURED AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 31N NORTHWARD WITHIN 90 NM IN SE QUADRANT OF THE GALE CENTER. OPTED TO LEAVE GALES OUT OF THE FCST WATERS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TREK EAST-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. BUOY 41048 NEAR 32N69W JUST REPORTED SSW WINDS OF 35 KT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR WITH 15 FT SEAS. GFE GRIDS THROUGH FRI WERE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND TC TRACK GUIDANCE WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF DEBBY WITH WINDS AND SEAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE LOW PRES WILL MOVES WELL N OF AREA AND HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST WILL LIFT N TO ALONG 26/27N BY SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES. AGAIN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED IN THE FIELDS BEYOND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AS A RIDGE BUILDS W ALONG 25N THROUGH SAT BEFORE SHIFTING TO 27N EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EDGE OF A 1510 HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS INDICATED A SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT AT NEAR GALE FORCE COUPLED WITH A REPORT OF 34 KT WINDS FROM SHIP A8KM6 AT 18Z CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF A SMALL AREA OF GALES OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GFE GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS...TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THEREAFTER WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE. A POORLY DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 78W WILL SHIFT W THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND FRI REACHING THE COAST OF YUCATAN FRI EVENING. A MUCH MORE WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 42W S OF 16N WILL PASS W OF 55W BY LATE SAT...AND INTO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON AND INTO E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER COBB