000
AGXX40 KNHC 272002
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CENTER OF DEBBY MADE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION 
AT AROUND 26/2100 UTC. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE STILL NOTED OVER 
THE FAR EASTERN GULF...MAINLY E OF 85W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ELONGATED CIRCULATION OF DEBBY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA 
NEAR 29.5N 81.5W AT 27/0600 UTC AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. LIGHT 
WINDS DOMINATE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF REGION UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK PRES PATTERN. EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND 
SUBSIDING SEAS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD AS DEBBY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THU AND FRI WITH 
SEAS OF 1-3 FT. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL 
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE NE GULF OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS DOWN THE FLORIDA COAST. A 
WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES 
FROM YUCATAN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...THEN DISSIPATE LATE THU. 
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE SE RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER THE FAR 
WESTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS REMAINS THE 
STRONGEST SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT SAT INTO SUN. FORECAST FAVORS MORE 
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF SHOWING MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND INTO MON.

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W...
DEBBY IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES 
INTO THE ATLC WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA. LOCATION AS OF 18 UTC WAS 
NEAR 29.5N 78.9W WITH 1003 MB MSLP. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST 
CALLS FOR DEBBY TO BECOME POST TROPICAL AS DRY AIR WRAPS INTO 
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW PRES WILL TRACK ENE AND 
MOVE JUST TO THE NW OF BERMUDA BY LATE FRI. BUOY...SHIP AND 
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED WINDS MAY 
STILL BE REACHING 35 KT WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE 
LOW. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE POSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RESIDUAL 
STRONG FLOW AS THE LOW LIFTS ENE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS 
WILL BUILD 10 TO 12 FT IN THE AREA OF THE 30 TO 35 KT WINDS. 
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST WILL LIFT N TO ALONG 
26/27N BY SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
CARIBBEAN...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF 
SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH THU AS MODERATE HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS N 
OF THE AREA ACROSS W ATLC. A POORLY DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WITH 
AXIS ALONG 68W WILL SHIFT W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 
INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN BY THU WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AND RESIDENT LOW PRES OFF COLOMBIA AND LOSE IT 
DISTINCT CHARACTERISTICS AT THE SURFACE AS A TROPICAL WAVE. A 
MUCH MORE WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 38W S OF 15N WILL PASS 
W OF 55W BY LATE SAT...AND INTO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUN 
OR EARLY MON.

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE)

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN