000
AGXX40 KNHC 230737
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
340 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NO MAJOR CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING OF THE LOW PRES 
SYSTEM IN THE GULF TO 1000 MB OR LOWER BY MON MORNING AS THE 
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO CARRY THE LOW 
EASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS 
CARRY THE LOW WESTWARD TO TEXAS OR NORTHERN MEXICO AT VARIOUS 
SPEEDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF 
THE LOW REMAINS QUITE BROAD WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS 
NEAR THE CENTER. CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE 
TO THE N AND E OF THE LOW CENTER ANALYZED NEAR 24N88W AT 23/06Z.
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY 
N AT AROUND 7 KT DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS REACHING 26N88W 
TONIGHT...27.5N88.5W SUN NIGHT AND 27.5N89W MON NIGHT. THIS 
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST 
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
FRESH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THE W SIDE 
OF THE ATLC RIDGE IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE TOWARD THE SURFACE 
TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ACROSS 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF YUCATAN. 
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION 
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH SLY FLOW IS FORECAST 
TO PERSIST IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. ELSEWHERE...FRESH 
WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE E AND THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 35W/36W IS 
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN 
TUE AND WED WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. 

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 
WEAK RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG 25N THROUGH 
SUN. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE GFS MODEL DRAGS THE GULF LOW 
EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO FAR NW 
WATERS MON THROUGH WED. THE GFS MODELS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT 
ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER 
THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW HERE. THE 
GRIDS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT OVER N FL AND 
INTO THE SW N ATLC...ALLOWING FOR SOME ENERGY TO BE SHED NE FROM 
THE MAIN LOW IN THE GULF. THE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN LOWERED 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SECOND LOW. 

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE)

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER