000
AGXX40 KNHC 220721
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 22.5N89.5W AT 22/00Z. 
WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW CENTER. THE CIRCULATION 
IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING 
ACROSS THE AREA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE TAMPA 
BAY AREA WITH ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT 
TERM SHOWING THE LOW PRES...POSSIBLE A TROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVING 
SLOWLY N TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. NE 
WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED W OF THE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF WITH SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BRING A 
GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF 
THE GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR NOW...EXPECT WINDS 
REACHING 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 9-10 FT. INTERESTS ALONG THE 
ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 
THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN UNDER A SE WIND FLOW. FARTHER EAST...SCATTEROMETER 
DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN 
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT FRESH E TO SE TRADES OVER MUCH OF 
THE BASIN...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE N COAST 
OF SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY 
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC DURING MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR 
EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC LATE MON...AND MOVE ACROSS THOSE WATERS 
ON TUE INCREASING THE EASTERLY WINDS SOME.

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NE 
OF THE BAHAMAS...EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO 25N75W. THE MOST RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
TROUGH. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
WHICH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NW THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. 
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG 25N THROUGH SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH 
SE-S WINDS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST ACROSS 
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF 
THE LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. ANOTHER LOW PRES MAY 
DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF NE FLORIDA LATE SUN OR 
SUN NIGHT. 

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE)

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER GR