000 AGXX40 KNHC 191846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CMAN...SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INDICATE THAT EASTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KT... BETWEEN A SHARP TROUGH FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND HIGH PRES OFF OF THE CAROLINAS. THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE ADVANCE OF 1009 MB LOW PRES NOW OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS APPROACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE...WHICH THE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN TONIGHT AND WED...AND INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS SHOWING A BROAD LOW REACHING TO NEAR 24N90W BY 12Z FRI. THEREAFTER THE GFS NOW SHOWS THE LOW MOVING INTO THE NE GULF DAYS 4 THROUGH 5...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE TO THE SW OF THE GFS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW MOVING INTO THE NW GULF DAYS 4 THROUGH 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE...AND ALSO DOES FAVOR THE STRONGER GFS REGARDING FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF...BETWEEN THE LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL REACH TO 7 TO 8 FT OVER THE NE GULF BY LATE SAT DUE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL GULF...AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS 1009 MB LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE AT 16N87W. AN ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. NE TO E 10 TO 15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH FRESH SE WINDS SE OF THE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF CUBA. THESE FEATURES WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THU. SW WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SHEAR THE CONVECTION WELL OFF TO THE NE OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAND ARE PREVENTING THE LOW FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING IN THE NEAR TERM...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA AND WESTERN JAMAICA. CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACTIVE ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N FOLLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THU. FARTHER EAST...A RECENT ASCAT PASS PICKED UP 20 TO 25 KT TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE ADVANCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO NEAR ISLA LA ORCHILA...AND BY AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING JUST TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY THEN WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT ENTERS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA WILL PUSH WEST OF 55W BY LATER TODAY...THEN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN WED BEFORE ALSO LOSING DEFINITION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS IT MERGES WITH NEW WEAK LOW PRES EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH N OF PANAMA. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE STRONGER GFS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N AS IT INITIALIZES WELL WITH THE STRONGER TRADES OFF THE VENEZUELAN AND COLOMBIAN COASTS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IS WELL DEFINED BY LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA EXTENDING FROM 30N66W TO 26N72W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. AN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA NEAR 31N45W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. 15 TO 20 KT E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED E OF THE TROUGH S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FRESH EASTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS W OF THE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH MIGRATING TO THE W-NW THROUGH THE WESTERN BAHAMAS TOWARD SE FLORIDA ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE FORECAST IS A MODEL BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CALLING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER THU AS THE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE NW WITH THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY