000 AGXX40 KNHC 190753 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 353 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CMAN...SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SHOW EAST WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE...BETWEEN A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE ADVANCE OF 1009 MB LOW PRES NOW OVER HONDURAS MOVING THROUGH YUCATAN AND INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOW THIS FEATURE AS A BROAD LOW REACHING THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N93W BY EARLY SAT WITH A MSLP AROUND 1006 MB. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE SIMILAR BUT SHOW LOW PRES IN THE NW GULF BY EARLY SAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT FAVORS THE STRONGER GFS REGARDING FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF...BETWEEN THE LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL REACH 7 FT OVER THE NE GULF BY LATE SAT DUE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM WED ONWARD TO THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE 1009 MB SURFACE LOW THAT HAD BEEN OFF NE NICARAGUA 24 HOURS AGO IS NOW OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD CENTRAL CUBA. THE LOW AND TROUGH COMBINATION WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE THU. SW WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SHEAR THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE NE OF THE CENTER. THE UPPER SHEAR AND INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAND ARE PREVENTING THE LOW FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING IN THE NEAR TERM. 15 TO 20 KT NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER EAST...A 0224 UTC ASCAT PASS PICKED UP 20 TO 25 KT TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE TRADE WINDS ARE ENHANCED BY THE ADVANCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ENTERING THE SE CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS BY THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING JUST TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE TODAY THEN BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT ENTERS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA WILL PUSH WEST OF 55W BY LATE TODAY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN WED BEFORE ALSO LOSING DEFINITION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS IT MERGES WITH WEAK LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH N OF PANAMA. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE STRONGER GFS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N AS IT INITIALIZES WELL WITH THE STRONGER TRADES OFF THE VENEZUELAN AND COLOMBIAN COASTS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACTIVE BETWEEN JAMAICA...GRAND CAYMAN...AND CUBA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N FOLLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THROUGH THU. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IS WELL DEFINED BY LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA EXTENDING FROM 29N68W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA NEAR 31N45W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. 15 TO 20 KT E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED E OF THE TROUGH S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MODERATE TO FRESH E FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS W OF THE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH MIGRATING TO THE NW THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TOWARD SE FLORIDA ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. FORECAST IS A MODEL BLEND CALLING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER THU AS THE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE NW AND THE ATLC RIDGE BUILD FROM THE EAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DIGGING SOUTH OF 30N...AND CUTTING OFF AS A COLD CORE LOW NEAR 26N70W BY LATE FRI...BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE MAINLY S OF 26N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FRI. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN