000 AGXX40 KNHC 171805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK TROUGH MOVE THROUGH NW GULF INTO TEXAS COAST LATE TODAY WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 6 FT N OF 27N. HIGH PRES CENTER 1018 MB OVER LOUISIANA STRENGTHENS MON AS WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH YUCATAN INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVER EASTERN GULF S OF 27N MON. FORECAST LEANS TO A MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS WITH MODERATE SE WINDS IN BROAD SWATH FROM SW FLORIDA TO TEXAS BY TUE INCREASING TO A STRONG BREEZE IN SE GULF LATE TUE. MAIN FEATURE IS DEVELOPING LOW PRES CROSSING SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO SW GULF LATE TUE AND MERGING BY WED WITH BROAD TROUGH ALREADY IN AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO IN INTENSITY AND TIMING WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN WIND SPEED ...SEAS AND THEIR COVERAGE. CONSENSUS OF SOLUTIONS TILTS FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND AS THE MAIN CAVEAT FOR ITS FURTHER STRENGTHENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS TO COVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN HALF OF GULF BY WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED OVER SW CARIBBEAN WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOIST AIR MASS AROUND IT. PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE... NOW EMBEDDED IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...BRINGS INSTABILITY INTO REGION WITH WIDE RANGE OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW ADDS ANOTHER INGREDIENT OF CONCERN. MODEL GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARD A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRES CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO DRIFT NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OR GULF OF HONDURAS WITH LARGE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION AND THREATENING AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 41W ENTER TROPICAL ATLC LATE TUE BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG ELY TRADES AND 8 FT SEAS INTO REGION AND SPREADING INTO ERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE WED. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... LOW PRES AREA 1010 MB AT 31N65W HAS PERSISTENT TROUGH TO ERN TIP OF CUBA HENCE INTO NW CARIBBEAN. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON E SIDE OF TROUGH PROMPTS LARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP AND STRONG CONVECTION PRESENTLY AFFECTING GREATER ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ZONE. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OF AREA MON NIGHT AND ALLOW HIGH PRES OVER ERN CONUS TO BUILD S BRINGING FRESH NE TO E BREEZE AND 6-7 FT SEAS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES