000
AGXX40 KNHC 161759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK TROUGH OVER NE GULF FROM 26N84W TO 28N88W MOVE W THROUGH 
TODAY AND SAT REACHING TEXAS COAST BY LATE SUN.  N PART OF 
TROUGH SQUEEZES PRES GRADIENT TO PROMPT FRESH E BREEZE N OF 28N 
...BUT MAINTAIN SEAS BELOW 8 FT.  MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS VARY 
IN ITS INTENSITY ONCE TROUGH REACH WRN GULF AND MERGES WITH 
SECOND TROUGH...POSSIBLY REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA...EXPECTED TO MOVE 
NW ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SUN.  IN ADDITION...WEAK LOW 
PRES CROSSING YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO SW GULF LATE MON OR TUE MAY 
ADD MORE MOISTURE TO MERGING SYSTEMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS E CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W MOVING W IS 
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH BROAD LOW PRES 1008 MB DEVELOPING OVER 
COLOMBIA IN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH.  FRESH TO STRONG ELY BREEZE 
ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE LIKELY TO INCREASE AS MERGING SYSTEMS 
ENHANCE OVERALL CONVECTION IN SW CARIBBEAN. 

INTENSIFYING CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES HAS RIDGE EXTEND W JUST N OF 
BASIN AND  MAINTAINING LONG FETCH ACROSS ATLC BRINGING FRESH TO 
STRONG E BREEZE AND 8-9 FT SEAS INTO TROPICAL ATLC ZONE SEEPING 
INTO ERN CARIBBEAN.  

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
WEAK LOW PRES CENTER AT 31N64W HAS TROUGH EXTENDING TO CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS.  LOW PRES MOVES NE AWAY FROM AREA DRAGGING TROUGH E 
ACROSS BASIN.  TROUGH PRESSES AGAINST CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE 
PROMPTING FRESH SW BREEZE NEAR 65W LATE SUN AND MON.  SEAS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 8 FT.  SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO 
LINGER ALONG TROUGH. 

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE)

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES