000 AGXX40 KNHC 141903 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF AT 27N88W...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE FL SW TO NEAR 28N87W. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE KEEPING A RATHER WEAK PRES PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY AND OIL PLATFORMS SHOW NW WINDS OF 10 KT NE OF THE HIGH... NE TO E WINDS OF 10 KT SE OF THE HIGH...SE TO S WINDS OF 5-10 KT NW OF THE HIGH...AND E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT IN THE SW PART OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 2-3 FT. THE TROUGH WILL REACH FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N88W TONIGHT...AND OVER THE FAR SE GULF FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRES SURGING SWD BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE NE AND N CENTRAL PORTION ALLOWING FOR NE TO E WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO MATERIALIZE THERE FRI THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIMINISH PER MODEL CONSENSUS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THOSE PORTIONS OF THE GULF DURING THAT PERIOD THEN SUBSIDE LATE SUN. THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE GFS/UKMET INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS IN THE FAR NE PART OF THE GULF ALONG OR NEAR THE W PART OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE MORE SUBTLE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND NWS RADAR DATA...THERE DOES APPEAR A SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AT 30N86W. SO IT DOES APPEAR MODELS WERE ON TO THIS FEATURE SINCE SEVERAL RUNS BACK. THIS FEATURE HAS FORMED AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LOUISIANA. THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS AND UKMET BEING THE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE LOW...TEND TO TRACK IT IN A GENERAL WWD DIRECTION ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND TO INLAND NE TEXAS ON SUN PERHAPS MORE AS A TROUGH BY THEN. ITS IMPACTS TO WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SEEN TO ITS WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT BUILDS S INTO THE GULF AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TRPCL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 86W/87W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVING W 10-15 KT. ANOTHER TRPCL WAVE IS JUST ENTERING THE FAR ERN TROPICAL N ATLC MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. BOTH BUOY AND ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON REVEALED MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS W OF THE WAVE. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SUGGEST A VERY WEAK LOW MAY BE MATERIALIZING AGAIN NEAR 10.5N82W ALONG PART OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE TRPCL WAVE ALONG 86W/87W WILL MOVE INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON FRI AND DISSIPATE...ALTHOUGH ITS RESIDUAL ENERGY WILL MOST LIKELY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGE MONSOON ERN PACIFIC GYRE THAT COVERS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE E PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD FRI THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK LOW EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DISCERNIBLE AS WAS YESTERDAY. HE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...FOR THE MOST PART SLOWLY TRACK THE LOW TO THE NW TOWARDS GULF OF HONDURAS AREA BY DAY 5 (TUE). EVEN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC MODEL NOW AGREES WITH ITS ENSEMBLE IN KEEPING THIS FEATURE OFFSHORE CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE WILL KEEP THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS BY MON. THE HPC/NHC AFTERNOON CONFERENCE CALL AGREED ON SUCH A SCENARIO. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE LOW WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS FOR ANY FORESEEABLE CHANGES IN ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS COMPARED TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED NOW IN THAT PORTION OF THE SEA. WILL KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL TO WATCH FOR ANY POSSIBLE ORGANIZATION OF THIS FEATURE. THE WAVE ENTERING THE ERN PART OF TROPICAL ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS THOSE WATERS THROUGH...AND INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA FRI NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOON GYRE THAT COVERS THE ERN PACIFIC AND FAR WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE MAP HAS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N74W SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SSE N OF THE AREA AT 34N72W. LATEST BUOY AND ASCAT DATA SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT S TO SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SE OF THE FRONT. NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT EXCEPT 4-5 FT IN A NE SWELL OVER THE FAR N CENTRAL PORTION. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 30.5N68W AS 1010 MB BY FRI MORNING AS PER THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMEF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THEN TURN MORE E AND TRACK NEAR 31N THROUGH SAT BEFORE TURNING NE TO NEAR BERMUDA BY SAT NIGHT AND INTO MON. THE UKMET SOLN FROM 12 UTC THIS MORNING INTERESTINGLY SPLITS THE LOW INTO TWO FRI KEEPING THE WRN ONE NEAR 30N68W THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE TO N OF THE AREA SUN. A TROUGH TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL EXTEND SW ACROSS N CENTRAL AND FAR SRN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL WATERS BY SUN...THEN LINGER THROUGH TUE. THE IMPACTS FROM THESE FEATURES WILL BE SEEN MORE IN THEN SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGES OF THE FORECAST AS STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE U.S. E COAST BRIDGES SWD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT AND INTO SUN CAUSING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE FAR NW AND NRN PORTIONS FRI THU NIGHT INTO MOST OF SUN BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATER SUN AND MON WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT IN THESE WATERS SUN AND MON LATE FRI THROUGH SUN. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE ERN PORTION E OF THE TROUGH ON SUN AND INTO TUE AS HIGH PRES OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC BUILDS A RIDGE WWD. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SE TO S WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE ERN WATERS SUN THROUGH TUE...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTER LIGHTER WINDS THERE USING A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WINDS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE