000
AGXX40 KNHC 130710
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA 
UNTIL LATE FRI WHEN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER GA/AL WILL MOVE IN 
BEHIND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH N 
FLORIDA...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NE GULF. THESE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN AS THE RIDGING TO THE N WEAKENS AND THE 
FRONT DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. PRIOR TO THIS...THE 00Z 
GFS AND THE 12/12Z ECMWF INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW 
PRES SYSTEM ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NE GULF THU LINGERING THROUGH 
FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS DROPPED THIS FEATURE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW 
THIS FINE SCALE FEATURE. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD A BLEND OF 
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AS IT IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE 
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ADJACENT WATERS. SEE THE 
SW N ATLC SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
THE 0108 UTC AND 0250 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW A MODERATE TO FRESH 
BREEZE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W. 
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL BE THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF THE 
TRADE WINDS THROUGH SAT. THE MODELS SHOW THIS TROPICAL WAVE 
SLOWING ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS AS THE BUILDING TROUGHING OVER FL 
AND THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO DRAW THE WAVE ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY 
TRACK. HOWEVER...THIS IS GOING TO HAVE TO HAPPEN SOON FOR THE 
FAST MOVING WAVE TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH. A BLEND OF 
THE GFS AND ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THIS TROUGHING AND THE 
GENERAL PATTERN N OF THE CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SECTION BELOW FOR 
DETAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN FRI. THE MONSOON 
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE E PACIFIC WILL 
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD FRI AND SAT AS A BROAD MID LEVEL AREA 
OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS. THE NOGAPS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE 
MODELS HERE...CARRYING A 1002 MB SURFACE ON THE N COAST OF 
HONDURAS BY MON EVENING. THE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS 
ENTHUSIASTIC...BUT THE GFS IS STARTING TO TREND TOWARD A DEEPER 
SOLUTION. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE PREFERRED BLEND OF THE 
ECMWF/GFS WHICH IS CLOSER TO A MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE COLD 
FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TODAY. THE ANCHOR 
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS OFFSHORE NEAR THE NC/VA 
BORDER WHILE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR 30N78W 
AT 14/06Z. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS SURFACE WAVE 
COMPARED TO RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL FUJIWARA 
WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANCHOR LOW LATE THU INTO 
FRI. THE DETAILS ON THE STRENGTH OF THESE TWO VORT MAXES AND 
THEIR TRACKS IS UP IN THE AIR. THERE CONTINUES TO BE AGREEMENT 
IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ON A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 30N70 AT 
16/00Z. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 200 NM NE OF THIS POSITION AT 
THAT TIME WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 200 NM SW. A BLEND OF THEIR 
SOLUTIONS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BEST WAY TO LEAN FOR THIS 
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST.  

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE)

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER