000 AGXX40 KNHC 110708 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS ARE DIMINISHING IN THE N CENTRAL GULF AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. 20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE S CENTRAL GULF AS SEEN BY THE 0334 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGHING EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE NE GULF EARLY WED MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA. NEITHER MODEL BUILDS PERSISTENT FRESH WINDS ANYWHERE IN THE GULF WED THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE 1023 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N75W CONTINUES TO DRIVE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TO ITS E...BRINGING THE TRADES DOWN A NOTCH. THE 0332 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SOLID AREA OF STRONG E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TUE AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 20N57W THROUGH ST LUCIA TO 11N63W WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS STEERED BY BUILDING TROUGHING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BUILD BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE ON THU AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION PREFERRED FOR THE PATTERN OVER THE SW N ATLC LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEANED TOWARD THE STRONGER GFS HERE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 1023 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH SITS NEAR 32N75W. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN BEGINNING TONIGHT ON THE W SIDE AND A DEEPENING... RETROGRADING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THEY DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS OF THE MID ATLC COAST WED...WITH THE GFS AND CMC CARRYING A DEEPER LOW TO THE N AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FARTHER E INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE LATEST GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SIDE WITH THE FASTER...MORE OFFSHORE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS WAS RELIED ON HERE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER