000 AGXX40 KNHC 091801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN WILL LIFT N AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG 26N. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF. BUOYS INDICATE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 87W AND 90W WHERE SLY WINDS ARE UP TO 20 KT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE ON FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH SUN. WINDS DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT ON MON AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THU. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N65W TO 27N70W THEN STATIONARY FRONT TO N FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 26N65W TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SUN. HOWEVER A TROUGH WILL BREAK OFF THE THE FRONT AND DRIFT THROUGH THE BAHAMAS SUN. HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MOSTLY LIGHT ELY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SE U.S. COAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN AND A MODERATE BREEZE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE GFS AND WAVEWATCH HAVE SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT AND SEAS TO 13 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE HERE. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOME OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS A COLD FRONT WELL N OF THE AREA IS SHOVING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY SUN MORNING AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE INTO WED. ITS PASSAGE WILL HELP KEEP WINDS IN ITS WAKE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A REASON TO STRAY FROM THE GFS FORECAST. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER DGS