000
AGXX40 KNHC 081756
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 08 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM 
NW FLORIDA TO A 1011 MB LOW PRES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 
29N94W WILL LINGER THROUGH SAT BEFORE LIFTING N AND DISSIPATING 
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG 26N. SATELLITE 
AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THIS 
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
GULF. BUOYS SHOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA OF 
THE GULF. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS 
INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL GULF ON SAT THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
EASTERLY TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE 
THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 15-20 TRADES ACROSS THE MOST OF THE 
REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONES. GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME BY EARLY SAT OVER THE 
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A 
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY 
SUN MORNING AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON INTO TUE. ITS 
PASSAGE WILL HELP KEEP WINDS IN ITS WAKE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. 
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A REASON TO STRAY FROM THE GFS 
FORECAST.
 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM  31N70W TO 30N81W.
THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TONIGHT AND 
FROM 26N65W TO BAHAMAS LATE SAT AND DISSIPATE MON. THERE IS 
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND 
POSITION OF THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT THAT LINGERS N OF 
THE AREA THROUGH TUE AS WELL AS WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE 
FRONT OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS BY MON. BY MON NIGHT...THE 
GFS BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF LOW LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE LINGERING 
BOUNDARY AND RETROGRADES IT INTO THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS 
PREFERRED OVERALL.
 
NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE)

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER DGS