000 AGXX40 KNHC 080706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 307 AM EDT FRI JUN 08 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH SAT BEFORE LIFTING N AND DISSIPATING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG 26N. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS DIRECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. THIS TROUGH ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF UNTIL MON WHEN IT WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD... SHIFTING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE GULF AT THE SURFACE. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE IN THE CENTRAL GULF ON THE E SIDE OF THIS TROUGH ON SAT THROUGH SUN...WITH THE GFS A BIT STRONGER. THEY ALSO AGREE ON THE GENERAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN. OVERALL...THE GFS LOOKS SERVICEABLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 25 KT WINDS IT GENERATES EARLY SUN IN THE N CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME BY EARLY SAT OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY SUN MORNING AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON INTO TUE. ITS PASSAGE WILL HELP KEEP WINDS IN ITS WAKE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A REASON TO STRAY FROM THE GFS FORECAST HERE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER WATERS N OF 29N W OF 70W. THE EARLIER MODELS DIVERGED BY TONIGHT WITH THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE WAVE NEAR 30N65W...WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC CARRYING A STRONGER WAVE THAN THE GFS OR UKMET. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A WEAKER WAVE LIKE THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT THAT LINGERS N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE AS WELL AS WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE FRONT OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS BY MON. BY MON NIGHT...THE GFS BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF LOW LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RETROGRADES IT INTO THE BAHAMAS. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS WITH THIS ENERGY. THE GFS IS PREFERRED OVERALL. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER