000
AGXX40 KNHC 071850
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF 
WATERS FROM NEAR GALVESTON TX TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI 
RIVER...THEN ON TO PENSACOLA FL AND TAMPA FL. BUOY AND 
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 24N97W TO JUST SOUTH OF MOBILE AL. A WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ALONG 23N OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF 
WATERS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS MOST 
OF THE GULF S OF 27N...PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF. A 
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF IS INTERACTING 
WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WARM GULF WATERS TO MAINTAIN 
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FROM TEXAS TO SW FLORIDA. MODELS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT FOR THE PROGNOSIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE 
FRONT WEAKEN OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH SAT. THE TROUGH OVER THE 
NW GULF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THEN DISSIPATE BY EARLY SUN. THE 
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N TO AROUND 27N BY LATE SUN...ALLOWING 
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MON AND TUE OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
THE AXIS OF A TUTT CONTINUES FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE 
COLOMBIA. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAD BEEN MOVING INTO THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS DAMPENED OUT. NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF THIS 
FEATURE REMAINS IN THE SURFACE DATA...OR IN THE LOWER TO MID 
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL 
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN AND THE 
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL 
RELAX SOME EARLY SAT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. USED A BLEND OF 
ECMWF/GFS FOR PACKAGE.
 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO 30N81W. THE FRONT WILL 
START TO DRIFT SE BY EARLY FRI...AND REACH FROM 31N70W TO 28N80W 
BY LATE FRI...BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM 25N65W TO 
THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE SAT. A RIDGE ORIENTED E TO 
W ALONG 25N WILL SHIFT S AND WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES 
SOUTH...BUT WILL BUILD AGAIN BY SUN AND START DRIFTING 
N...REACHING 27N MON AND TUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...THEN DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 
NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE)

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN