000 AGXX40 KNHC 070604 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E TO W ALONG 25N ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 86W. A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS BECOME ORIENTATED NE-SW FROM THE NE GULF TO THE SW GULF AND A SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED E-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT A LITTLE TO THE N TODAY AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY FILL ON FRI ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD W TO THE NE MEXICAN COAST LATE FRI NIGHT. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RETURN S OVER THE NE WATERS BRIEFLY ON FRI THEN SHIFT N OF AREA ON SAT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL EXTEND ALONG THE TX COAST N OF THE RIDGE FRI AND SAT THEN DISSIPATE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NW PORTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. USED GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE AXIS OF A TUTT CONTINUES FROM 23N55W TO 20N67W TO 09N72W. A NON-CONVECTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL EVIDENT ALONG 69W AS THE UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY W AND THE WAVE IS STILL WITHIN THE DIFLUENT SECTOR E OF THE UPPER AXIS. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME EARLY SAT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON. USED A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR PACKAGE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE A NLY SURGE AND PUSH IT BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY. BY EARLY FRI THE FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED BERMUDA AND WIGGLE WESTWARD TO THE NE FL COAST. A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SW OF BERMUDA FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN THE WESTERN SEGMENT ACCELERATING TO THE SE THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N60W TO THE SE BAHAMAS LATE SAT ALTHOUGH VERY WEAK ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT...THEN SLOWING AND GRADUALLY WASHING OUT OVER THE SE PORTION SUN...BUT FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL MEANDER OVER THE WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 55W SUN AND MON. USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON