000 AGXX40 KNHC 061842 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 242 PM EDT WED JUN 06 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ALONG AND S OF LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS SW GULF NEAR 23N94W...WITH WEAK TROUGHING EXTENDING NE INTO THE NE CENTRAL GULF...AND DEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE S AND SE. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ALOFT AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS SE U.S. PRODUCING VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ACTIVE AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE E GULF. FRESH S TO SW FLOW DEPICTED BY LATE MORNING SCATTEROMETERS AND OBS PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR CNVTN...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E AND NE TO W COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT. BUOY 42003 RECENTLY JUMPED FROM 5 TO 8 FT IN THIS SLY FLOW SE OF TROUGH. LLVL REFLECTION OF MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS SW GULF FORECAST TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH FOCUS OF CNVTN REMAINING E HALF OF BASIN. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC W ACROSS FL TO E HALF OF GULF AND WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE E BY FRI MORNING...WITH RIDGE WEAKENING ACROSS FLORIDA AND GULF. FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTED BY SE U.S. UPPER TROUGH TO SINK S INTO NE GULF FRI MORNING AND THEN BREAK UP ACROSS NE GULF FRI AFTERNOON AND ATLC PORTION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT AND MEANDER S. USED GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TUTT AIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN SSW TO TUTT LOW ANCHORED NEAR 06N71W. UPPER RIDGE TO THE W PRODUCING GENERAL UPPER CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE W OF TUTT AXIS TO ABOUT 82W. WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED UNDERNEATH TUTT AXIS TODAY AND LOST OBVIOUS IDENTITY. E CARIB RAOBS FROM PAST 24 HOURS REVEAL WAVE PASSAGE AND INTRUSION OF SAL TO SAN JUAN. STRONG LLVL JET BEHIND WAVE CONTINUES TO FORCE CNVTN E OF WAVE AXIS AND TUTT...BUT CNVTN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS SAL BEGINS TO DOMINATE IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT E OF TUTT. POSITION OF ATLC RIDGE TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH PULSING WIND MAX TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA NEXT 36 HOURS...AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AS RIDGE SHIFTS E AND FRONT DRIFTS S INTO SW N ATLC. GLOBAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF TRADES. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST N OF AREA STRETCHING S PORTIONS OF GULF COASTAL STATES E-NE TO JUST NW OF BERMUDA WILL MEANDER THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SINK S ACROSS THE W WATERS FRI AND SAT. SUFFICIENT MODEST DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVING FROM NE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND THEN SWEEPING ACROSS THE SW ATLC CAUSING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS ALONG FRONT...AND IN TURN...PLACEMENT OF FRONT. USED A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE FOR THIS PACKAGE TO PLAY MIDDLE GROUND...BUT MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY 72 HOURS AFTER MID LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF AREA. THIS COMPROMISE YIELDS 1011 LOW APPROACHING BERMUDA BY 12Z FRI WITH FRONT EXTENDING SW TO CAPE CANAVERAL...THEN LOW SHIFT E-NE AND FRONT REACHING THROUGH NW BAHAMAS TO MIAMI AREA BY 12Z SAT. SW WINDS 20-25 KT LIKELY ACROSS SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW AS IT SKIRTS N AND NE PORTIONS OF AREA. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING