000
AGXX40 KNHC 060615
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 AM EDT WED JUN 06 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN GULF WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED E ACROSS FL AND 
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING NW FROM THE FL
STRAITS TO N-CENTRAL WATERS IS RETRACTING EASTWARD AS A BROAD 
LOW LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THE GRADIENT 
HAS TIGHTENED OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH SE FLOW AT 15-20 KT 
PER A RECENT SHIP AND A RIGG OBS. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO RELAX 
LATE THU WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS 
SLOWLY E. THE TROUGH WILL FILL IN FRI WITH THE RIDGE 
RE-ESTABLISHING FROM THE SE WATERS TO THE NW COASTAL PLAINS WITH 
LIGHT RETURN FLOW. USED GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR PACKAGE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
THE AXIS OF A TUTT CONTINUES FROM 22N55W TO 08N70W. A LOW 
LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 60W WILL SOON LOSE 
IDENTITY IN THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES AS IT 
ENTERS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY 
TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 
THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. GFS/MWW3 A LITTLE 
OVERDONE ON STRENGTH OF TRADES IN S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS 
USED A BLEND OF ECMWF TO TONE DOWN THE WINDS FOR PACKAGE.
 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO 31N81W WILL STALL JUST 
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIFT N OF THE AREA TO 
ALONG ABOUT 32N LATER TODAY. A REINFORCING NLY SURGE WILL PUSH 
THE FRONT S BACK INTO THE NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT 
WEAKENING...BUT STILL CONTINUING SE AND PASSING BERMUDA LATE FRI 
AND EXTENDING W TO THE FL COAST NEAR 28N. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND 
FROM 31N60W TO THE NW BAHAMAS MIDDAY SAT...AND BE DISSIPATING 
FROM 31N54W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT MIDDAY SUN. THE GFS AND 
ECMWF SEEM IN REASONABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT FOR SUCH A WEAK 
FRONT...SO USED EQUAL WEIGHTING FOR FORECAST PACKAGE.
 
NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE)

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON