000
AGXX40 KNHC 050609
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 AM EDT TUE JUN 05 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS KICKING OFF 
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SE 
GULF WATERS IS MERGING WITH THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF AN ATLC 
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE FL STRAITS THEN TURNS NW TO 
THE NW COASTAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ON WED ALLOWING A 
WEAK TROUGH TO DIP S INTO THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT WHILE AN 
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BY THU A 
BROAD TROUGH WILL COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE TROUGH 
DRIFTING E ON FRI AND SAT. BASICALLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND 
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. USED 
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BLEND FOR PACKAGE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
THE AXIS OF A TUTT CONTINUES FROM 22N55W TO 08N70W. A LOW 
LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 56W WILL REACH ALONG 
ABOUT 63W BEFORE BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN THE 
INCREASING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY 
TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 
THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME ON FRI AND SAT MAINLY OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. GFS AND ECMWF IN 
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH OF TRADES...SO USED A BLEND OF 
EACH FOR PACKAGE.
 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING FROM 30N55W TO 24N65W WITH AN E TO W  
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 21N55W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS 
TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS INITIAL FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER 
THE EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT BUT A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ALREADY 
MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS WITH SLY 20-25 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE TIMING OF 
THIS FRONT SO WILL AVERAGE THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.   
 
NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE)

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON