000 AGXX40 KNHC 041831 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE ANTICYCLONIC ACROSS THE REGION...FROM A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF CUBA NEAR 24N79W THAT EXTENDS W-NW INTO THE NW GULF. HIGHEST WINDS OBSERVED ARE AROUND 15 KT IN FAR NE PORTION OF THE GULF. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WED NIGHT. GFS MODEL AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF THU MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY W AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI EVENING. A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO MISSISSIPPI WILL ENHANCE WESTERLY WINDS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE NE GULF WED THROUGH THU. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A WEIGHTED BLEND OF GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET FOR MARINE FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE MOVING NW OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER AND FEW SHOWERS PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 13N ALONG 54W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE COAST OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA. FRESH TO STRONG E TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH FRI. FORECAST GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN GLOBAL MODELS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE PORTION FROM 31N 60W TO AROUND 26N68W WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ABOUT 200-250 NM E OF THE FRONT IN A NARROW LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N55W TO 23N70W. AN ELONGATED E-W LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT THEN TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT...ROUGHLY ALONG 29N/30N TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. EXPECT A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... WITH SW WINDS 15-20 KT LIKELY AT TIMES N OF 29N THROUGH FRI. IN THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT...DIFFERENCES IN THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS IN REGARD TO TIMING AND POSITION OF FAST-MOVING FEATURES ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG WITH HIGHER RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY...IS TO BE EXPECTED. BUT OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR IN THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH LENDS SOME MEASURE OF CREDIBILITY AND CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL