000 AGXX40 KNHC 040624 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT MON JUN 04 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SE GULF WATERS IS MERGING WITH THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF AN ATLC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO REAPPEAR FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS WEAK TROUGHS DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY OVER S FL AND FL STRAITS EFFECTIVELY SEPARATING THE ATLC RIDGE FROM THE GULF RIDGE. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONT/TROUGHS WILL PASS E ACROSS THE FAR NE WATERS TO THE N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH THE SW FLOW INCREASING TO 15 KT BUT MOSTLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE SE RETURN FLOW SW OF THIS QUASI STATIONARY RIDGE WILL PULSE AT 15 KT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AGAIN BEGINS TO DIFFER BEGINNING WED WITH THE GFS STILL SUGGESTING THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT TO FAR E WATERS ALLOWING A BROAD TROUGH TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT E OF 88W WED NIGHT AND THU. THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET ON THE OTHER HAND STILL SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ON WED...BUT WEAKEN ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TO SLIP INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE WED NIGHT. THE LATTER SCENARIO AGAIN SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. USED GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR PACKAGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN APPLIED MORE WEIGHT TO UKMET AND ECMWF FOR THE WED THROUGH FRI FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... UPPER FEATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUING TO SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. FURTHER E...A TUTT EXTENDS FROM 22N55W TO 08N72W AND OCCASIONALLY LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ARE INDUCED AND SHOW UP IN THE SURFACE DATA. A TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE PROVIDES FAVORABLE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVES TILL THEY MOVE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHERE THEY THEN QUICKLY LOSE IDENTITY IN THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES. THIS SITUATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 48W WHICH SHOULD REACH ALONG 63W BEFORE BECOMING DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND SUPPORT ELY KT THROUGH THU THEN THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME ON FRI. THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH OF TRADES...SO USED A BLEND OF EACH FOR PACKAGE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES ALONG A 600 NM WIDE PLUME ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS THEN TURNING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR 27N72W WITH A SURFACE HIGH ANALYZED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND A RIDGE EXTENDING E-W ALONG 21N E OF 72W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E LOSING IDENTITY BETWEEN 65W AND 55W TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. SLY FLOW NW OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT WITH A SECOND WEAK FRONT/TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE S TO FAR N WATERS THU NIGHT AND MOVE SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N ON FRI WITH GUIDANCE AGREEING 20-25 KT SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR THE PACKAGE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON