000
AGXX40 KNHC 031830
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE 
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER 
THE NE GULF. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE THROUGH MON. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR
AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER BELIZE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SW ATLC
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE NW GULF THROUGH TUE THEN 
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WED AND THU AS A STATIONARY FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG 
THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL REGION. A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL 
PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 
TUE NIGHT..BUT WITH VERY LITTLE CONSEQUENCE IN OFFSHORE WATERS. 
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ALLOWING A 
BROAD TROUGH TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE THE ECMWF 
AND UKMET SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO 
REACH THE NW WATERS. THE LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS 
LIFTED N OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE W PERIPHERY 
OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 
CONVECTION W OF 83W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER LAND NEAR BELIZE...WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS 
SHOW WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN COAST. FRESH-STRONG 
E TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE BASIN. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS 
THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL 
TIGHTEN AND INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL TRADES TO AROUND 15-20 KT.
 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC FROM 31N73W TO 
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LACK OF 
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE A FEW AREAS 
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE LOCATED N OF 28N WELL E OF THE FRONT.
A BROAD HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 21N/22N WESTWARD 
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N TONIGHT
THEN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED MON AS IT DIPS FURTHER S TO ALONG 
25N ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN 70W-55W THROUGH MON NIGHT. 
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION 
OF THE AREA TUE. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE 
GEORGIA COASTLINE MON NIGHT AND PASS E THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN 
WATERS THROUGH THU. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE N OF THE RIDGE WITH 
GUIDANCE DIFFERING MAINLY ON TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH GFS 
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BIAS TOWARD A GREATER 
BLEND OF UKMET/ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
 
NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE)

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER MUNDELL