000 AGXX40 KNHC 030545 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EDT SUN JUN 03 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS WILL MOVE E OF AREA EARLY TODAY. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH HAS SHIFTED SE OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF AND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE SE MERGING WITH AN ATLC RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND INTO THE SE GULF AND CONTINUE NW TO NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO REAPPEAR FROM TIME TO TIME AS WEAK TROUGHS OVER S FL AND FL STRAITS FROM AND SEPARATE THE ATLC RIDGE FROM THE GULF RIDGE. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONT/TROUGHS WILL PASS E ACROSS THE FAR NE WATERS TO THE N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT..BUT WITH VERY LITTLE CONSEQUENCE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE SE RETURN FLOW SW OF THIS QUASI STATIONARY RIDGE WILL PULSE AT 15 KT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIFFER BEGINNING WED WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E ALLOWING A BROAD TROUGH TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT E OF 87W WED NIGHT AND THU. THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET ON THE OTHER HAND SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ON WED...BUT WEAKEN ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TO SLIP INTO THE FAR NW WATERS. THE LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. USED GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR PACKAGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN APPLIED MORE WEIGHT TO UKMET AND ECMWF FOR THE WED AND THU FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE UPPER TROUGH HAS LIFTED N OF THE AREA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. THE RESULTANT MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BEFORE RETURNING S OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. FURTHER E...A TUTT HAS DUG SW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND OCCASIONALLY LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ARE INDUCED AND SHOW UP IN THE SURFACE DATA. THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDES FAVORABLE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVES TILL THEY MOVE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHERE THEY THEN QUICKLY LOSE IDENTITY. JUST SUCH A SITUATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 40W WHICH SHOULD REACH ALONG 60W BEFORE BECOMING DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC TILL MON NIGHT THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND INCREASE THE FLOW TO 20 KT. GFS AND ECMWF IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH OF TRADES...SO USED A BLEND OF EACH FOR PACKAGE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE PERSISTENT TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS SHIFTING E AND SHRINKING IN SIZE THIS MORNING SO WILL MAKE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER GRIDS. THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ALONG 24N AND THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA AROUND SUNSET TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT THEN PENETRATING FURTHER S TO ALONG 25N AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN 70W-55W THROUGH MON NIGHT. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND SHIFT SE BECOMING ABSORBED IN AN ATLC RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM 23N55W TO SE FL ON TUE. BY THEN...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING E THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY A 20 KT WIND SHIFT. THE SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE N OF THE RIDGE WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT(S) WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...SO WILL USED A HEAVIER BLEND OF UKMET/ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PERIODS OF PACKAGE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON