000
AGXX40 KNHC 021825
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM JACKSONVILLE 
FL TO NEAR 28N87W WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR A 
FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE IN THE NW 
CARIBBEAN MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 26N92W WILL SHIFT SE THEN MEANDER NEAR 27N84W SUN 
THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE TX/LA BORDER. 
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER S ON TUE...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF 
WEAK TROUGHS TO PASS E THROUGH THE EXTREME N WATERS WITH VERY 
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. SE RETURN FLOW SW OF THE RIDGE WILL PULSE AT 
10-15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF A MID-LEVEL 
TROUGH ORIENTATED N-S ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COMBINED WITH 
DIVERGENT FLOW W OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND 
STREAMING ABUNDANT MID- LEVEL MOISTURE NE ACROSS CUBA. FRESH TO 
STRONG EASTERLY TRADES DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N 
ATLC. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MON NIGHT. A TROPICAL 
WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 10N ALONG 37W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND 
BECOME ELONGATED ALONG A ENE-WSW AXIS BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES 
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUE.

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 31N79W TO THE NORTHERN COAST 
OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. CONVERGENT WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM 31N75W TO 27N79W IN THE 
NORTHERN BAHAMAS IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS UP TO 
200 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL 
MOISTURE STREAMING NE ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AHEAD OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N 
OF 27N THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT DIPPING S TO AROUND 
24N-25N E OF 70W THROUGH MON NIGHT. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH 
WILL DEVELOP NEAR 29N78W SUN NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SE ACROSS THE NW 
BAHAMAS MON BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD ATLC RIDGE THAT 
WILL EXTEND FROM 22N55W TO SE FL ON TUE. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE E THROUGH NORTHERN WATERS N OF 28N TUE AND WED.
THE 06Z GFS MODEL RUN WAS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THE LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERED THE 
GULF STREAM WATERS OFF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT THE 12Z 
RUN HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM THE EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE 
AND IS CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL. 12Z ECMWF IS NOT AVAILABLE 
YET FOR COMPARISON WITH THE 12Z GFS...SO THE LATEST FORECAST 
RELIES HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE AND THE 12Z GFS...AND CONSIDERS 
THE 06Z GFS AN OUTLIER MODEL RUN THAT SHOULD BE IGNORED.

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE)

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER MUNDELL