000 AGXX40 KNHC 020555 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE SW TO NEAR 28N90W WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH ALREADY ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF WILL SHIFT E TO THE MS DELTA WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A SECOND SURFACE HIGH...OVER NE LA ATTM...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RACE SE TO THE DELTA EARLY SUN. THE MERGED HIGH WILL CONTINUE SE REACHING NEAR FL BAY SUN NIGHT MERGING WITH AN ATLC RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND INTO THE SE GULF AND CONTINUE NW TO NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONT/TROUGHS WILL PASS E THROUGH THE NE WATERS TO THE N OF THE RIDGE WITH VERY LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. SE RETURN FLOW TO THE SW OF THE QUASI STATIONARY RIDGE WILL PULSE AT 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. USED GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ORIENTATED NNE-SSW FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. THE RESULTANT MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N AND NE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W AND ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND SE FL...TURNING E IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...THEN SPILLING BACK S OVER THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE IT HAS BEEN AIDING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS EVAPORATING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST AREA. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN...WITH MOSTLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 13N ALONG 33W WILL APPROACH THE SE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST AREA LATE MON BUT WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT AND LOSE IDENTITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE CARIBBEAN AS THE PREVIOUS WAVES HAVE DONE. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH OF TRADES...SO USED A BLEND OF EACH FOR PACKAGE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND EASTERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 74W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ALONG ROUGHLY 26N. SLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE IS AT 15-20 KT IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA LATE SUN WITH THE FRONT THEN PENETRATING A LITTLE FURTHER S...PERHAPS TO ALONG 25N...BETWEEN 70W-55W AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH MON NIGHT. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR 29N78W LATE SUN...AND SHIFT SE ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS SUN...BECOMING ABSORBED IN AN ATLC RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM 23N55W TO SE FL ON TUE. BY THEN...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING E THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT. THE SW-W FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE TUE-WED FRONT AS A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION THU NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF IN CLOSE AGREEMENT SO USED A BLEND OF EACH FOR PACKAGE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON