000
AGXX40 KNHC 011803
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM SE LOUISIANA 
TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LACK OF 
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH IS EVIDENT 
ONLY FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF PRESSURE AND WIND DIRECTION. 
THE WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 
27N THROUGH SAT NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO WEATHER EXPECTED ALONG 
THE BOUNDARY. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE TO THE 
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA SAT AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE HIGH 
CENTER MEANDERING NEAR 27N84W SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT AND A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NW TO THE TX/LA BORDER. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER S 
ON TUE...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS TO PASS E THROUGH THE 
EXTREME N WATERS WITH VERY LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. SE RETURN FLOW SW 
OF THE RIDGE WILL PULSE AT 10-15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND 
ECMWF IN CLOSE AGREEMENT SO USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR FORECAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTATED N-S 
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COMBINED WITH DIVERGENT FLOW W OF 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W...AND STREAMING ABUNDANT
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE FL STRAITS 
INTO FLORIDA...THEN SPILLING BACK SE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES 
INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES DOMINATE 
THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OBSERVED 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS 
PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 19N 
ALONG 67W WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG NW FLOW AROUND THE E PERIPHERY 
OF THE W CARIBBEAN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...AND BECOME A DIFFUSE
FEATURE BY TONIGHT IN STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES. LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. GFS 
AND ECMWF IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE E TRADES.
 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NNE ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A PERSISTENT SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 26N. SLY FLOW NW OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE 
TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF NE FLORIDA. 
THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH 
SUN NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT DIPPING A LITTLE FURTHER S...TO AROUND
24-25N...E OF 70W THROUGH MON NIGHT. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH 
WILL DEVELOP NEAR 29N78W SUN NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SE ACROSS THE NW 
BAHAMAS MON BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD ATLC RIDGE THAT 
WILL EXTEND FROM 22N55W TO SE FL ON TUE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE E THROUGH NORTHERN WATERS N OF 28N TUE AND WED ACCOMPANIED 
BY A 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
 
NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE)

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER MUNDELL