000 AGXX40 KNHC 010637 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FL STRAITS TO THE SE TX COAST WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OVER THE NE TX COASTAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING THE FRONT TO PASS E THROUGH THE WATERS GENERALLY TO THE N OF 27N THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A 15 KT WIND SHIFT. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE TO THE MS DELTA SAT AFTERNOON...THEN REACH NEAR 27N84W SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH CENTER THEN MEANDERING IN THAT AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO TX/LA BORDER. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER S ON TUE...BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE QUASI-STATIONARY TO NW DISSECTING THE GULF WATERS ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONT/TROUGHS TO PASS E THROUGH THE EXTREME N WATERS WITH VERY LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. SE RETURN FLOW TO THE SW OF THE STATIONARY RIDGE WILL PULSE AT 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. USED GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTATED N-S OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA COMBINES WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...TOGETHER SUPPORTING REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. THE RESULTANT MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N AND NE ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND FL...TURNING E ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...THEN SPILLING BACK S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST AREA. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES DOMINATE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN...WITH MOSTLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 15N ALONG 66-67W WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE E PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTION W CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONE...AND SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY TODAY IN THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH OF TRADES...SO USED A BLEND OF EACH FOR PACKAGE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND MOST OF FL PENINSULA...THEN TURNS SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ALONG 26N. SLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA LATE SUN WITH THE FRONT THEN PENETRATING A LITTLE FURTHER S...PERHAPS TO ALONG 23N...BETWEEN 70W-55W THROUGH MON NIGHT. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR 29N78W LATE SUN...AND SHIFT SE ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS SUN... BECOMING ABSORBED IN AN ATLC RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM 22N55W TO SE FL ON TUE. BY THEN...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING E THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY A 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT. GFS AND ECMWF IN CLOSE AGREEMENT SO USED A BLEND OF EACH FOR PACKAGE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON