000 AGXX40 KNHC 311825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTER 1013 MB IN CENTRAL GULF AT 27N88W HAS RIDGE REACH FROM CORPUS CRISTI TEXAS TO SW FLORIDA. FRESH BREEZE AND 5-6 FT SEAS COVER AREA N OF 22N W OF 93W WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS COVER ELSEWHERE IN BASIN. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA PROMPTS NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS S OF 27N E OF 90W ALONG WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NE INTO SRN HALF OF FLORIDA... WRN CUBA AND NW BAHAMAS. HIGH PRES WEAKEN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES TEXAS COAST FROM THE W. FRONT EXPECTED TO SKIM ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND BE E OF GULF SAT. HIGH PRES REBUILD BEHIND FRONT SUN AND MON BECOMING CENTERED IN NE GULF WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO NE MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA DRIFT NW GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS AND ADVECTS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN UPPER LEVEL PLUME TO THE NE OVER E CUBA...S FLORIDA AND NW BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES COVER S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN. MOSTLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W S OF 15N DRIFTING W IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 17N. WAVE EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY FRI NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD AS ATLC RIDGE NE OF AREA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND NW BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE...ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO S OF BERMUDA. SE-S MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE SW N ATLC REGION WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SEAS. CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AS ATLC RIDGE HOLDS. MODEL GUIDANCE GETTING IN TUNE WITH MOVEMENT OF WEAK COLD FRONTS CROSSING N LATITUDES OF BASIN. FIRST FRONT BRINGS INCREASE IN SW RETURN FLOW ON SAT QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY SUN. SECOND FRONT DIPS DEEPER INTO SW N ATLC LATE MON AND TUE. MAIN DIFFERENCE IN MODELS IS MINOR DISAGREEMENT IN WIND SPEED. MODELS SHOW AT LEAST FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES