000 AGXX40 KNHC 310634 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 234 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1014 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N88W WITH A RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM NEAR CORPUS CRISTI TEXAS THROUGH THE HIGH TO SW FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS COVER THE E GULF ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS COVER THE W GULF WITH MAINLY 2-4 FT SEAS. SURFACE TROUGHING EXISTS FROM THE FAR SE GULF/STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO PROMOTE CONVECTION IN THAT REGION SPREADING TO THE NE-E ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SKIM ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FRI...PUSHING E OF THE GULF SAT. HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AND MON BECOMING CENTERED IN THE NE GULF WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION WHICH IS ADVECTING EASTWARD TO ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES COVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF BASIN. MEANWHILE MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 15N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PATTERN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK AND WEEKEND AS ATLC RIDGING NE OF AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER PLAYER. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... EXTRATROPICAL BERYL IS CONTINUING EASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED THE WATERS S OF 31N. A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF BERYL IS OVER THE NW PORTION HELPING TO KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN ZONE AMZ111 AND WESTERN AMZ113. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM UP FROM THE SW TO ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. OTHERWISE ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO S OF BERMUDA. SE-S MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE SOUTHWEST N ATLC REGION WITH MAINLY LIGHT SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AS THE ATLC RIDGING HOLDS. MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS FROM SE GA/NE FL AND DEVELOPS LOW PRES ALONG IT SAT AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH THE LOW LIFTING NE OF THE AREA BY SUN DRAGGING THE TRAILING FRONT TO THE E-SE. THE ECMWF BRINGS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT BUT DOES NOT DEVELOP A LOW...WITH THE TRAILING FRONT MOVING THROUGH BEHIND SUN AND MON. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW AT LEAST FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE UKMET BRINGS ONE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT...STALLING OUT AND BECOMING DIFFUSE FROM S OF BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WAS USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY