000 AGXX40 KNHC 290603 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE S-CENTRAL GULF WATERS IS EMBEDDED IN A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NW TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON BAY. CYCLONIC 15-20 KT WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE FAR NE GULF IN RESPONSE TO T.D. BERYL WHICH IS INLAND OVER THE FL/GA BORDER. BERYL IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT IN THAT AREA BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM SW FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO WED WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE NE MEXICAN AND TEXAS COASTS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT SUPPORTING 20-25 KT OVER THE WATERS N OF 21N W OF 93W/94W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX JUST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT THE TEXAS COAST FRI. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE GUIDANCE ARRAY CONCERNING THE TIMING...AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS NEXT FRONT INTO THE GULF...BUT OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN 15 KT OF NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SO A BLEND OF EACH WAS USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 20N86W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PERSIST WITHIN 300-360 NM E-SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE TO ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... CUBA...AND JAMAICA DUE TO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET THAT IS PARKED OUT OVER THE REGION. AN EARLY MORNING ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 20-25 KT TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH NDBC BUOY 42058 WHICH IS ALSO REPORTING 8-9 FT SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS OR THE WEATHER PATTERN ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS ATLC RIDGING DOMINATES NE OF THE AREA WITH BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS/ YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS UTILIZED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... T.D. BERYL REMAINS INLAND OVER THE FL/GA BORDER. AN EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASS SHOWED SE-S 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE SW N ATLC IN THE W HALF OF AMZ111. MEANWHILE 1022 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE HIGH SW TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMOVED FROM THE ENHANCED BERYL WINDS. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 3-5 FT SEAS NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. BERYL IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE TO ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINES TODAY THROUGH WED AS THE HIGH AND RIDGE SLIDE TO THE SE. ANY REMAINING FRESH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL WILL DIMINISH BY LATE WED AS BERYL DEPARTS. CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING WILL THEN DOMINATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS PERSISTING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE NW CORNER WHERE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON SAT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BLENDED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY