000
AGXX40 KNHC 281754
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE S-CENTRAL GULF WATERS IS EMBEDDED IN A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FL STRAITS NW TO NE TX COAST. W 
AND NW WINDS INCREASED THIS MORNING OVER THE EXTREME NE COASTAL 
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO TD BERYL INLAND OVER THE FL/GA BORDER. 
BERYL STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE N THIS AFTERNOON THEN TURN NE 
TONIGHT AND ACCELERATE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE SC COAST TUE NIGHT. 
EXPECT CYCLONIC S-SW-W WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE NE WATERS...N OF 
28N E OF 85W...THROUGH LATE TUE...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15 KT OR 
LESS. BY THEN THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING N OVER THE EASTERN 
GULF WITH THE SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE 
NE MEXICAN AND SE TX COASTS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WED NIGHT 
THROUGH THU NIGHT SUPPORTING 20-25 KT OVER THE WATERS N OF 21N W 
OF 93W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX JUST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD 
FRONT ARRIVING AT THE TX COAST FRI. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
GUIDANCE ARRAY CONCERNING THE TIMING...AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF 
THIS NEXT FRONT INTO THE GULF...BUT OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH 
MORE THAN 15 KT OF NLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. GFS AND ECMWF IN CLOSE 
AGREEMENT WITH SLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SO USED A BLEND OF EACH 
FOR PACKAGE.           

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... 
THE OVERNIGHT EASTERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT IN THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS. THE E TRADES CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 69W-76W WITH THE AFFECTED 
AREA EXPECTED TO SHRINK SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
AS THESE TRADES DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THEY WILL CLOCK TO THE SE 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS E OF 77W ON THU AND FRI. E WINDS AT 
MOSTLY 15 KT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL WATERS THROUGH FRI 
...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER AREA S OF 15N FRI NIGHT AND 
SAT. APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVES ARE LOSING IDENTITY AT THE 
SURFACE BEFORE REACHING ALONG 55W AFTER ENCOUNTERING AN 
CONTINUOUSLY REINFORCED UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS N-S ALONG 55W 
OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS. BLENDED GFS/ECMWF FOR PACKAGE.
 
SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
BERYL DOWNGRADED TO A TD AND CONTINUING FURTHER INLAND ATTM. 
SHIPS AND BUOYS INDICATE SEAS AT A MAX OF ONLY 11 FT AT 12Z THIS 
AM. SE-S WINDS AT 15-20 KT OVER THE NW WATERS WILL CONTINUE BUT 
CLOCK TO THE S-SW AND INCREASE TO A CONSISTENT 20 KT AS BERYL 
GETS PICKED AND ACCELERATES NE OFF THE SC COAST DRAGGING A 
TROUGH E ACROSS THE N WATERS FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. 
FURTHER S...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND E-W ACROSS THE 
EXTREME N BAHAMAS WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED INTO THE 
WEEKEND...ACCOMPANIED BY SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT. GFS KEYING ON 
CURRENT CONVECTION IN W CARIBBEAN AND SUGGESTING WEAK LOWS WILL 
MOVE N ACROSS THE FL STRAITS MID WEEK IN THE WEAKNESS ALONG THE 
W PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND E OF THE GULF OF MEXICO 
RIDGE...WHICH IS REALLY A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE. 
THUS BLENDED SOME ECMWF WITH GFS FOR GRIDS.

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE)

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE. TD BERYL INLAND.  
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON