000 AGXX40 KNHC 280701 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1014 SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE SE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N87W WITH A RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM NEAR GALVESTON BAY TEXAS SE THROUGH THE HIGH TO WESTERN CUBA. RECENT ASCAT AND OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS IN THE W GULF AND 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS IN THE E GULF. BUOY OBSERVATIONS REPORT 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE W GULF AND 1-3 FT IN THE E GULF. T.S. BERYL IS LOCATED NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND W-NW WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE FAR NE GULF AROUND THE OUTER CIRCULATION. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT LATER TODAY AS BERYL MOVES CLOSER TO THE NE GULF PRIOR TO RETREATING BACK TO THE NE AND INTO THE ATLC ON TUE THROUGH WED. OTHERWISE THE HIGH AND RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THU AND FRI. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE FAR W GULF THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THAT AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT LATE DAY 4 INTO DAY 5 WITH THE GFS MOVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT JUST INLAND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. THE UKMET BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE NW GULF AND THEN STALLS IT OUT. USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO 11N W-SW OF JAMAICA. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LIKELY BEING SOMEWHAT INDUCED BY THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS BEING TRACKED THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING LATE LAST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY MID WEEK AND TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES COVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE AS INDICATED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEAS ARE UP TO 8-9 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST AS REPORTED BY A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION. ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ARE MAINTAINING THESE WINDS. NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS AND WEATHER PATTERN ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS INLAND NEAR 30.3N 81.6W NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AS OF THE 200 AM EDT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES OF 995 MB. BERYL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY TUE MORNING WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 12 FT BY LATER TODAY. MODERATE E-SE WINDS COVER THE WATERS OUTSIDE OF ZONES AMZ111 AND WESTERN AMZ113 AROUND HIGH PRES SITUATED NEAR BERMUDA. THE TRACK RECURVES BERYL OVER SE GEORGIA TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK AS ATLC RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM E OF 55W THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS DEVELOPS WEAK LOW PRES OVER S FLORIDA ON FRI LIFTING NE BY NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS DO NOT SHOW ANY LOW OR EVEN A TROUGH. USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH A HIGHER WEIGHT ON THE ECMWF AT LATE DAY 4 THROUGH DAY 5. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AMZ111. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY