000 AGXX40 KNHC 270616 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 216 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR SE LOUISIANA EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE W ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM IN-SITU DATA INDICATE E-SE 10-15 KT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF...EXCEPT 5-10 VARIABLE WINDS IN THE NE GULF...AND 15-20 KT NE WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO ENHANCED FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOW-LEVEL JET IN THAT AREA. SUB-TROPICAL STORM BERYL CURRENTLY E OF THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE ATLC IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW-W AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA/EXTREME SE GEORGIA BY LATE SUN WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OUT BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL GET NUDGED TO THE SW AS BERYL APPROACHES AND WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WHILE INCREASING TO UP TO 20 KT IN THE FAR NE GULF...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS AREA. AS BERYL MOVES AWAY MON AND TUE THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE E BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE GULF BY WED AND THU. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN GULF AS A RESULT AND THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT NEAR THE MEXICO AND TEXAS COASTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE E...AND LOW PRES/TROUGHING LOCATED OVER INTERIOR TEXAS AND MEXICO. THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT PLACED ON THE ECMWF IN THE SHORT-TERM IN COORDINATION WITH WFO TALLAHASSEE AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS VERY NEAR THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST OF BERYL. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH E-SE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THE E SIDE OF BROAD LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING SITUATED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A CLUSTER OF STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS PROPAGATING FROM THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S-SW ALONG THE COASTLINES OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING BELIZE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST IN THIS AREA THROUGH TODAY AS ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS DISSIPATED AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA WHICH SHOWED HOMOGENEOUS NE-E MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH 10-15 KT E-SE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY TOP OUT AROUND 25 KT ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES LOCATED OVER NW SOUTH AMERICA AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH MAY FORM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD BY NEXT WEEKEND. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WAS USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS CENTERED IN THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION NEAR 30.8N 77.9W AT 2 AM EDT...OR ABOUT 230 MILES E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. BERYL IS MOVING TO THE W-SW AROUND 5 KT. THIS MOVEMENT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH BERYL MAKING LANDFALL SUN NIGHT OR MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ASSOCIATED WINDS OF 20 KT OR GREATER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF AMZ113 AND ALL OF AMZ111. BERYL WILL MOVE NE TUE AND WED AFTER SOME TIME OVER LAND WITH THE FRESH TO T.S. STRENGTH WINDS LIFTING N OF THE AREA BY LATE THU INTO FRI. OTHERWISE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA SW TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH TUE...SHIFTING SE WED AND THU AS BERYL MOVES NE AROUND IT. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WAS USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT PLACED ON THE ECMWF IN THE SHORT TERM AS THAT SOLUTION WAS THE CLOSEST TO THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK OF BERYL. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AMZ111 AND AMZ113. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY