000 AGXX40 KNHC 261741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE HIGH OVER N GA HAS A RIDGE SW ALONG THE TX COAST. THE SLY RETURN FLOW IS DIMINISHING BUT STILL CONTINUES AT 15-20 KT OVER THE WATERS FROM 19-28N W OF 88W. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO RELAX SOME MORE AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SW OVER CENTRAL LA TONIGHT THEN TO THE LA COAST ON SUN. SHOULD GET THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF NE WINDS AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE TX COAST MON THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH EFFECTS THE SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL HAVE ON THE NE GULF BEGINNING MON AS THE FORECAST MOVES THE CENTER INLAND S-CENTRAL GA MON NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLY CYCLONIC WINDS AT 15-20 IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER...20-25 KT...IN THE COASTAL WATERS PER BLEND OF GLOBAL MODELS. FRESH SLY RETURN FLOW WILL RETURN OVER THE GULF WATERS W OF 94W LATE WED INTO THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND DEEPENING LOWER PRES WELL W OVER INTERIOR TX. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LOW LEVEL TROUGHS...BUT WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST WIND SHIFT DETECTED IN THE SURFACE DATA...CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FROM CENTRAL CUBA SW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. E WINDS ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHILE INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND W CUBA....WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY NEAR THE ISLE OF PINE AND W CUBA ATTM. EXPECT THIS TROUGHING TO SHIFT W THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W TODAY WITH LITTLE EFFECT TO THE NE-E TRADES AT 15-20 KT...AND LACKING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WELL TO THE SW OF THE CURRENT WAVE POSITION...THUS DROPPED FROM GRAPHICS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED S OF 14N ALONG 50W WITH LITTLE EFFECT NOTED IN THE NE 15 KT NE TRADE WIND ENVIRONMENT...BUT IS ENHANCING LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS...ALL TO THE S OF 11N. EXPECT E WINDS TO PULSE AT 20-25 KT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHILE MOSTLY 15 KT ELSEWHERE...THROUGH THE PERIOD. USING A BLEND OF GFS AND ECM FOR GRIDS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 31.6N 76.3W AT 11 AM AND WILL INTENSIFY TO 45 KT GUST 55 KT AND MOVE SW INTO THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT REACHING INLAND GA SUN NIGHT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INLAND MON BEFORE ACCELERATING NE AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND MOVE BACK OVER WATER N OF THE AREA AND REGAIN STORM STRENGTH WED AND THU. THE ASSOCIATED RADIUS OF 20 KT WIND WILL EFFECT THE MARINE AREA N OF 27N W OF 74W THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN EFFECT THE AREA N OF 27N TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS THE CYCLONE DRAGS A TROUGH E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. FURTHER S...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED THEN SHIFT A LITTLE S WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE TROUGH PASSES E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N. USING A BLEND OF GFS AND ECM FOR GRIDS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. SW N ATLANTIC... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AMZ111 AND AMZ113. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON