000 AGXX40 KNHC 251837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE GULF NEAR 28N85W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS MAINLY WEAK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS INDICATED BY 1250 UTC WINDSAT PASS AND SURFACE DATA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER BETWEEN THE HIGH/RIDGING AND LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGHING LOCATED OVER INTERIOR TEXAS AND MEXICO. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS TO 20 KT IN THE W GULF SAT MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS IN THE FAR SE GULF HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SE OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS IT BACK INTO THE SE GULF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLIER NEXT WEEK...WHILE A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM WESTERN CUBA ACROSS THE ISLE OF YOUTH TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS INDICATED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA. REPORTS FROM CUBA INDICATE THAT AREAS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION HAVE RECEIVED TORRENTIAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN. FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE ALSO EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND THE TROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD AND WEAK TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FRESH TRADES CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY OF DAY REVEALED THAT THE LOW PRES ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WEST PART OF THE AREA MOVED N OF THE REGION TO NEAR 32N77W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY REORGANIZING NEAR 31N75W WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WEAK LOW PRES TO 23N81W. THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS SHOWED NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE IN DEVELOPING A BETTER DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THIS TROUGH ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF IT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS BACK THE LOW PRES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST WATERS BY SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS PRODUCING MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR